Read this Thursday’s edition of the FolhaMercado newsletter (4) – 04/05/2023 – Market

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Airbnb back to basics

After nearly 15 years since its founding, an additional $75 billion in market value and local authorities trying to ban short-term rentals, Airbnb wants to go back to basics.

This year, the platform launches “Airbnb Rooms”, with the promise of making renting individual rooms more attractive, practical and safe – the original idea when the startup was created, in 2008.

What explains

rent inflation: It became more expensive to find a private room on the platform, especially after the end of pandemic restrictions and in more crowded places.

• The idea is also to maintain the attractiveness in relation to hotels, which are now Airbnb’s immediate competitors.

• In 2022, the average price for a private room on the platform was $67 per night. In Brazil, the fare is around R$165.

Regulatory pressure: Brazil, USA, Ireland, Portugal. In all of these countries there are some sort of restrictions on short-term Airbnb rentals.

• In Brazil, for example, the STJ decided that condominiums can prohibit short-term leases as long as it is provided for in a convention approved by assemblies.

• Renting out shared rooms, therefore, frees Airbnb from lengthy and costly legal duels.

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BRL 500 per person to go in a ‘flying car’

The first flights of Eve’s eVTOLs, an Embraer startup known for its “flying cars”, are expected to cost between US$50 and US$100 (R$500) per passenger.

The calculation is by Daniel Moczydlower, chief executive of the innovation arm of the Brazilian aircraft manufacturer – Embraer is the majority shareholder of Eve, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange.

Understand: eVTOLs (vertical take-off and landing electric vehicles) are considered a cheaper, quieter and less polluting alternative to helicopters.

• 2026 or 2027 is the predicted date for the first operational flight of the “flying car”;
• 15 minutes it will be the maximum time of each trip, at least in the beginning.
• One pilot and four passengers must fit in the first flights, which in the future must take place without a human in command.

In numbers: Eve has agreements for the delivery of up to 2,770 vehicles, the equivalent of any revenue from $8.3 billionsaid the Embraer executive.

• For the money to enter the account, however, the company must first comply with the licensing stages, simulations in unmanned flights and tests with people on board.

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BC low pitch; Fed indicates pause

Without generating major surprises in the market, the Central Bank maintained the Selic rate at 13.75% a year, while the Fed raised the reference interest rates in the USA by 0.25 points, to the range of 5.00% The 5.25% per year.

In the communiqués that accompanied the decisions, the BC left analysts divided on whether or not to maintain the tough tone of the previous meeting, while the Fed signaled that it may stop raising interest rates at the next meeting.

In Brazilthe BC collegiate again said that the situation demands “patience and serenity”, drew attention to the “resilience” in the labor market and added the term “less likely” when talking about the possibility of raising interest rates again.

In the USAthe Fed no longer said it “anticipates” further rate hikes will be needed, only that it will look at incoming data to determine whether further hikes “may be appropriate.”

• In the post-decision interview, Powell said it is too early to say that the interest rate hike is over.

The impact on investments

After the Fed’s decision, the dollar lost strength against other currencies with the sign of proximity to the end of high interest rates there.

on fixed incomesee here the profitability of applications with Selic at 13.75%.

Opinion: While the Central Bank is not signaling a drop in interest rates, the most interesting thing now is whether the Lula government will react with some crazy attitude, such as changing the inflation target, writes columnist Vinicius Torres Freire.

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Commerce leaves, industry enters

If, on the one hand, the logistics warehouse sector ended up affected by the crisis of retail companies in the country in the first quarter, on the other hand, the demand for high quality assets remained strong in Brazil in the period, mainly in industry.

• in retailcompanies such as Americanas, MadeiraMadeira and Grupo BIG were responsible for large returns of logistics warehouses from January to March.

What explains: the occupation does not mean that the sector is immune to the crisis, but that high quality logistics warehouses are still in high demand by companies, say sector agents.

• The estimate is that the vacancy rate (the percentage of free areas), currently around 11%, should rise by the end of the year, but not return to the 20% level, as it was before the pandemic.

More on retail crisis

High interest rates and a brake on the supply of credit make requests for judicial reorganization and bankruptcy skyrocket at the beginning of this year.