Read this Friday’s edition of the FolhaMercado newsletter (3) – 03/03/2023 – Market

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What you need to know about 2022 GDP

The Brazilian economy closed the year 2022 with accumulated growth of 2.9%according to GDP data released this Thursday (2) by the IBGE (we explain here how the result is calculated).

In numbers: in the last quarter of the year, activity dropped by 0.2% compared to the previous three months, in line with market projections. It is a sign that the interest rate hike process has reached the economy, as expected given the monetary policy lag.

• Ireland at the top and Poland at the bottom: see here the GDP performance of 34 countries in the last quarter of 2022.

Understand the performance of the Brazilian GDP in 2022 in four points:

1 – Services: the sector is the main one from the point of view of supply and the increase in 4.2% pulled the advance of the economy in the year, being responsible for 2.4 percentage points of the 2.9% of growth.

• Still from the perspective of supply, industry increased by 1.6% in the year, while agriculture fell by 1.7%, as a result of the drop in the soybean harvest.

2 – Family consumption: the main sector on the demand side was up 4.3% last year, driven by the return of face-to-face activities.

• It was also helped by household savings during the pandemic, the recovery of the labor market and measures to encourage consumption during the election period, such as the expansion of the Auxílio Brasil program and tax cuts.

3 – Repercussion: for President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), the economy did not grow “nothing, nothing, last year”, while Minister Fernando Haddad (Finance) blamed the former management for the retraction in the last quarter.

4 – Analyzes:

• 2022 GDP was much better than expected, but the strong increase in the number of jobs and consumption was a surprise that will not be repeated this year, writes Vinicius Torres Freire.

And for 2023? The projections indicate an advance close to 1% in the year. Interest rates should continue to pressure consumption, and now there is no post-pandemic recovery, in addition to families being indebted and the global economy slowing down.

• Relief may come from agriculture, which is heading towards a larger crop than in 2022.

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purse at the lowest

Driven by the retreat of Petrobras shares, the Stock Exchange closed the fifth consecutive day in decline and reached the lowest level of the year. The fall was not greater only because of the surge in the shares of EDP Brasil and C&A.

In numbers: the Ibovespa ended this Thursday at a drop of 1.01%The 103,325 points, at the lowest level since December 16, when the Transition PEC was discussed. the dollar advanced 0.25%at BRL 5.20.

In the first trading session after Petrobras recorded the highest profit in the history of a Brazilian company, its common shares fell 2.74%while the preferred ones retreated 2.60%.

• The doubt lies over the payment of the R$ 35.8 billion in announced dividends, since the government has the power to veto this transfer at the April meeting.

on the positive sidehighlighting the actions of EDP Brasil, a company for the generation, distribution and transmission of energy.

• The price assigned by EDP will be BRL 24 per share, with a premium of 22.26% over the close of the share on Wednesday, of R$ 19.63. The operation can move approx. BRL 6.1 billion.

• EDP ​​Brasil debuted on the Stock Exchange almost 20 years ago, and today serves in the distribution business about 3.8 million of customers with two concessionaires, in São Paulo and Espírito Santo, in addition to being an important shareholder of Celesc, in Santa Catarina.

another highlight positive of the day was C&A, whose shares jumped 12.37% after the company disclosed a balance sheet that pleased analysts, with growth of 37.9% in net profit for the fourth quarter.

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take a break

Last weekend, Berkshire Hathaway released its traditional annual letter, in which billionaires Warren Buffett, 92, and Charlie Munger, 99, take stock of the company’s investment portfolio over the past year and outline scenarios for the US economy and worldwide.

Berkshire, now the sixth largest public company in the world by market value, is known for its enduring positions in traditional companies and whose businesses are little dependent on short-term economic cycles.

• In 2022, a negative year for the main indicators of the American market, the company led by Buffett recorded a record operating profit of US$ 30.8 billion.

In the letter, the Omaha billionaire reinforced his thesis of “never bet against the US” and warned of cases of “creative accounting” in public companies. See excerpts from the document here.

Want to know more about the Buffett style of investing? We separate some indications:

• How to be Warren Buffett (2017): documentary that shows the lifestyle of the mega investor, who runs away from the hype and lives in a modest house in Omaha, in the state of Nebraska. Available on HBO Max.

• The Snowball (2020): the only authorized biography of Buffett, released by the publisher Sextante in Brazil (Alice Schroeder, trans. Fabiano Morais, Livia de Almeida and Marcello Lino, R$ 89.90, 992 pages, R$ 49.90 ebook).

beyond the economy

• TV Folha: see how the last movie session at the Annex Itaú on Rua Augusta went.