Rapid aging of the population can affect activity and overwhelm public health and Social Security; understand

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Scenario changes the productive dynamics and causes repercussions on the job market and GDP. For experts, the country is still slow to adapt to demographic change. g1 Census 2022:Older and more feminine Brazil New data from the 2022 Census released this Friday (27) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) show that the average age of Brazilians increased from 29 years in 2010 to 35 years in 2022. This means that half of the population is under 35 years old, and the other half is older than that. In 2022, Brazil also recorded the biggest jump in aging between two censuses since 1940, now having 55 elderly people for every 100 young people. The country’s tendency, therefore, is to have fewer and fewer young people and more and more elderly people — a transition that increases the challenges for the Brazilian economy. In practice, the more the population ages, the smaller the number of people of working age. This movement changes the productive dynamics and causes repercussions on the labor market and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the sum of all goods and services. And, above all, it burdens Social Security and public health. (understand below) Brazil is increasingly feminine and ages faster, shows Census Structural measures For economists interviewed by g1, Brazil needs to apply structural and long-term measures to sustain population aging. The assessment, however, is that the country is still slow to act. We are always late. We didn’t carry out the reforms when the country was younger, and we didn’t do them when it started to age. Demographic changes are more predictable. If we can predict it, we should act more appropriately. For Luis Eduardo Afonso, from USP, the Social Security reform approved in November 2019 was essential, but not enough. He points out that the text left important points open — and that they will need to be revised in the coming years. The main flaw, according to him, would be precisely the exclusion of a section related to the aging of the population. The vetoed point established the automatic increase in the retirement age as Brazilians’ life expectancy increased. “This needs to be an automatic rule,” he says. “It’s a system already applied in European countries.” The chief economist at Análise Econômica, André Galhardo, points out that another challenge lies in the public budget. He recalls that, since the Federal Constitution of 1988, several expenses have been frozen — that is, with mandatory allocation —, which increases the challenges when the country needs to allocate more resources to Social Security and Health. We have to make a long-term strategic change , and not wait for a new round of rising unemployment rates to force us to make hasty decisions. Galhardo recalls that, before the Social Security reform in 2019, there was a strong crisis in the job market and the consequent imbalance in the social security budget in 2015 and 2016. In those years, Brazilian GDP fell by more than 3%. “Now we have a relatively better scenario. So, we shouldn’t wait for the next negative cycle to adopt measures. Otherwise, it would certainly be a short-term decision that would expose the most needy population”, he continues. Pension gap According to estimates from the Secretariat of the General Social Security Regime of the Ministry of Social Security, the deficit of the National Social Security Institute (INSS) should more than double by 2060 and quadruple by 2100. The numbers are contained in the proposed Budgetary Guidelines Law 2024. According to the government, the social security gap predicted for this year is R$276.9 billion, equivalent to 2.6% of GDP. The projection is that the negative result will increase in 2060 to R$3.3 trillion or 5.9% of GDP and, in 2100, to R$25.22 trillion — 10.4% of GDP. Social advancement and the job market The director of FGV Social, Marcelo Neri, highlights that, in the last 35 years, Brazil has done its homework on social issues, with advances in life expectancy, the number of children in school and a drop in poverty. But it left something to be desired in terms of the economy. The expert explains that Brazil is a special case of accelerated demographic change, “perhaps only comparable to China”, and highlights that the reforms implemented in Brazil tend to have limited effects, as they are generally late, and include many exceptions that compromise its effectiveness. Another alternative to mitigate the economic effects of an aging population, says Neri, would be the adoption of measures that seek to reinsert retirees into the job market — which also brings challenges. “The elderly population has 3.3 years of study less than the average. This is because, when they entered the school system at their stage, many did not study at all. The Brazilian school system was precarious. So, there is also this difficulty” , explains. In addition to education, another obstacle to the reintegration of this group into the job market is the rate of connectivity or internet at home — which is half compared to the rest of the population —, says the expert. “We have to think about forming more diverse work teams, also with different age groups. But this is not a simple task. It involves a cultural change”, he concludes. Which paths to take? In general, experts reinforce that, in addition to adopting reforms based on demographic changes, it is necessary to understand that this aging population will require reallocations of resources. “We need to spend more on Social Security. Also on health services, care services for the elderly, which are where inflation is high”, says Marcelo Neri, from FGV Social. “Investment in education also helps maintain more productive lives, making people arrive more safely [financeira] to old age. Because the problem is not today’s elderly people. They are the elderly of the future.” For Luis Eduardo Afonso, from USP, another fundamental point in this process is for Brazil to think about the professional qualifications of the elderly, in addition to developing public policies that encourage the inclusion of this population in the job market. “It’s a challenge . We don’t have much experience in this regard. The number of elderly people is increasing and, at the same time, these people will have to stay in the job market longer. It’s a combination we’ve never had in the history of Brazil”, says the Social Security specialist. “People used to retire early, but now they have to work until they are 65. They will have to develop, seek to keep up with new technologies”, he concludes.

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