Public accounts surplus drops 47% until April and totals R$ 78.7 billion, shows Central Bank

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At the same time, the gross debt of the public sector, an indicator that is closely monitored by investors, increased to 73.2% of the Gross Domestic Product last month. Consolidated public sector accounts registered a primary surplus of R$78.7 billion in the first four months of this year, equivalent to 2.31% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the Central Bank informed this Wednesday (31). . Compared to the same period last year, when a positive balance of R$ 148.5 billion (4.74% of GDP) was recorded, there was a 47% drop. The primary surplus occurs when tax expenditures are below revenues, disregarding interest on the public debt. When the opposite happens, there is a deficit. The result encompasses the federal government, states, municipalities and state-owned companies. At the same time, the gross debt of the consolidated public sector, an indicator closely followed by investors as it indicates countries’ ability to pay, rose 0.2 percentage points last month, to 73.2% of GDP (see further down in this report). ). In April alone, a primary surplus of R$ 20.3 billion was recorded, down from the same period of the previous year – when the positive balance totaled R$ 38.9 billion. This was the worst result for this month since 2020, when there was a deficit of R$94.3 billion. The surplus balance of public accounts in the last month was due to the performance of the federal government, states and municipalities accounts. See below: federal government registered a surplus of R$ 16.9 billion; states and municipalities had a positive balance of R$ 4 billion; state-owned companies had a deficit of R$ 602 million. After interest expenses When public debt interest is included in the account – in the concept known in the market as a nominal result, used for international comparison – there was a deficit of R$ 25.4 billion in the public sector accounts in April. In 12 months, until April of this year, the result was negative (nominal deficit) at R$ 603.3 billion, equivalent to 5.92% of GDP. This number is closely monitored by risk rating agencies when defining countries’ credit scores, an indicator taken into account by investors. The nominal result of the public sector accounts is impacted by the monthly result of the accounts, the actions of the BC in the exchange rate, and the basic interest rate of the economy (Selic) set by the institution to contain inflation. Currently, Selic is at 13.75% per year, the highest value in six years. According to the BC, last month expenses with nominal interest totaled R$ 45.8 billion. In 12 months, until April, expenditures with interest totaled R$ 659.5 billion (6.47% of GDP). Gross debt The gross debt of the public sector, an indicator that is also monitored by risk rating agencies, registered stability in April, reaching 73.2% of GDP, equivalent to R$ 7.45 trillion. In March, the debt was at 73% of GDP, totaling R$7.39 trillion. Since the transition, with the increase in expenses through the PEC to recompose the budget, the government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been asked by the financial market about measures to avoid the increase of the public debt. In January, the economic team announced a package of measures to try to reduce the shortfall in public accounts this year, focused mainly on raising revenue, to try to contain the rise in public sector debt. Last month, the government announced the new fiscal framework, that is, proposed rules for public accounts to replace the spending ceiling. The National Treasury has already admitted that the debt could exceed 80% of GDP at the end of the Lula government, in 2026.

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