market reduces inflation expectations and forecasts 4.9% in 2023

Financial market analysts once again revise downwards inflation expectations for the year 2023, according to the Central Bank’s Focus Report, exceptionally released this Tuesday (25). Normally, the bulletin is released on Mondays, but it was postponed this week due to the women’s soccer team game.

According to the agents consulted by the monetary authority, the expectation is that inflation will end the year 2023 at 4.9%, 0.05 percentage points less than what was calculated last week and the day before (see in full). The new forecast resumes an eight-week low.

Optimism with inflation is also reflected in the forecast for the coming years, with an expectation of 3.9% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026.

Analysts also began to forecast a drop in the expected average dollar exchange rate for the end of this year, from R$5 to R$4.97. The US currency has varied against the real, and closed the second (24) at R$ 4.73, the lowest level since May 2022.

On the other hand, financial market agents did not change their expectations regarding GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth at the end of 2023, which also came from a constant increase in eight weeks. At this moment, they predict a growth of 2.24% in the year.