Market maintains inflation expectations for 2023 and 2024, but raises account for longer term – 03/06/2023 – Market
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Analysts consulted by the Central Bank maintained their expectations for inflation this year and next, interrupting a recent sequence of increases, although the prognosis for the advance of prices in a longer term has risen again.
The weekly Focus survey, released this Monday (6), estimates that the IPCA will increase by 5.90% in 2023 and 4.02% in 2024, unchanged from the previous survey.
This year’s projection interrupted a sequence of 11 consecutive increases, while the account for next year remained unchanged for the second straight week, stability that came after a series of five increases.
The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and, for 2024 and 2025, it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.
On the other hand, economists raised their inflation estimate for 2026 for the third time in a row, to 3.77%, from 3.75% the previous week. This should feed investors’ fears of expectations being discouraged after recent criticisms by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Central Bank’s conduct of monetary policy and inflation targets.
The market maintained the perspective that the Selic will end this year at 12.75% and the next at 10.00%, according to Focus, but raised the projection for interest rates at the end of 2026 by 0.05 percentage points, to 8 .75%. The rate is currently at 13.75%.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate this year improved marginally for the third week in a row, to 0.85%, from 0.84% in the previous week. For 2024, it remains at 1.50% for the tenth week in a row. Last Thursday, IBGE data showed that GDP grew by 2.9% in 2022, down 0.2% in the last quarter over the three immediately preceding months.
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