Lula, the PT opposition and the centrão – 06/05/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

The PT command and the PT nucleus in the government, especially in the Civil House, have a program that, in part, has been at least supported by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.

It is a plan that bothers people from other parts of the government, including PT members, as in the economy, in foreign affairs and even in the environmental area. Even at the BNDES, a sort of left wing of the economic team, the more PT-party plans cause concern. Everyone says the government needs to remember that it was elected by a “broad front”.

The attempt to regain control of Eletrobras, Petrobras’ policy, the minimum wage readjustment rule, Lula’s affair with the war in Ukraine, the decrees to change sanitation laws (making life easier for state-owned companies), the slowness of rebuilding in the environmental area and attacks against the fiscal framework are part of the list of frictions. The resumption of Eletrobras and the sanitation decrees are works of the PT core in the government.

There may be more. The PT command, deputies and economists linked to the party, but very outside the government, are preparing an alternative proposal for Fernando Haddad’s spending plan. The proposal foresees an increase in expenditure greater than that of the Haddad project, in almost all cases, or excludes investments from the primary balance account, among other strong changes.

It will not pass through the government and even less through Congress. But the mere presentation of an alternative plan, in these terms, would give strength to the thesis that there is more opposition in the government than outside it.

It is a comment that is heard in several ministries that are not controlled by people linked to the PT command: it is too much shooting in the foot. Urgent arbitration by Lula is requested.

The framework will already be modified in agreement with Congress. There should be more rules to “punish” spending in case of non-compliance with the primary surplus target, such as triggers that prevent an increase in certain expenses (such as wages) or waiver of revenue. Some expenses should enter Lula’s ceiling limit: nursing salaries, money to fatten the capital of state-owned companies, for example. It is the opposite of the PT line

In fact, organized and dominant opposition in Congress still does not exist. But the government takes jerks, which was evident in last week’s polls, but not only.

Arthur Lira (PP-AL), President of the Chamber, publicly fries the Minister of the Institutional Relations Secretariat, Alexandre Padilha, responsible, among other things, for distributing money from amendments. The distribution was unlocked after a few angry calls from Lula, but the money has not yet started to reach the parliamentarians’ companions.

The leaders of Congress, a much expanded centrão, criticize Rui Costa’s Civil House for being centralized and slow; they want definitions of lower-ranking positions, especially in states, which yield prestige, some power and some payback.

With experience, analytical capacity and interest, it is not known in what proportion, these leaders of the expanded center say that the government is disorganized, ministers are banging their heads, especially those from the Planalto. They say that the government and, even more so, the PT, do not understand the new Congress, which is stronger and frankly right-wing. That’s what Valdemar Costa Neto, president of the PL, said in an interview with the newspaper “Valor”.

That’s what Lira has been saying too. It is obvious to anyone versed in political arithmetic. What for now is a coup cannot become organized opposition, even more so if the economy does not grow well (it should not grow, until 2024) and if there is no flow of amendments (there may be a lack of money).

Conflicts in government and with an organized opposition are a two-pronged fight. Never in history was it a good idea.

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