Lula in Portugal: a difficult visit to a country in crisis – 04/22/2023 – Rodrigo Tavares

On his trip to Portugal, Lula will face an environment similar to that of Brazil between 2013 and 2016, when the economic picture deteriorated, social welfare conditions reached the ground floor and the government succumbed to political autophagy.

The result in Brazil was the impeachment of Dilma Rousseff in August 2016, one year and eight months after she was reinstated. In Portugal, the government of António Costa (in power since 2015 and reinstated a year and a month ago) has lived, almost daily, with speculations of an eventual dissolution by the President of the Republic. The Portuguese Constitution, semi-presidential in nature, allows the head of state to dismiss the government, which has happened seven times since April 25, 1974.

At the end of her first term, Dilma reached 79% approval – the highest rate for a president in this period since redemocratization. Costa was elected in 2022 with an absolute majority, a historic feat. Shortly thereafter, both governments were affected by executive inabilities, government casualties and lack of administrative ethics.

Interestingly, the two have performed well in some areas: Dilma with Brasil Sem Miséria, the National Truth Commission, the Forestry Code and the Civil Rights Framework for the Internet, while Costa has made a splash with the deficit and public debt. But, with the mistakes, Dilma and Costa ended up losing the communication war, consolidating the governance crisis.

In fact, many of the problems attributed to António Costa predate his government. Portugal has 16.4% of the population below the poverty line (data published in 2023 relative to 2021), a high value compared to other European countries. But historical evolution is not favorable for any government. The values ​​have remained high and stable over the last two decades, between 17% and 19%.

The economy has also been stagnant for about 20 years, suffocated by low productivity and a high tax burden. As a result, wages are among the lowest in Europe. The average gross salary is 1,575 euros (about R$8,700). It seems high, but when inflation and taxes are discounted, most Portuguese people find it difficult to eat healthily and live decently. The evolution of average wages from 2021 to 2022 was negative. The Portuguese are losing purchasing power.

The various Portuguese governments have benefited, over the years, from conjunctural benefits, such as funds from the European Union. Since joining the organization in 1986, Portugal has already received an accumulated value of 160 billion euros, making its development semi-dependent on external subsidies.

Tourism, which accounts for around 10% of GDP, has also helped hide Portugal’s ulcers. As well as the positive balance of immigration. Never before have so many foreigners lived in Portugal, injecting new resources into the treasury. But all this is like treating an illness with steroids. There is a lack of structural and visionary reforms that put the country on the automated path of growth, sustainability and innovation. Dilma was accused of the same.

The agenda that has drowned the current Portuguese government is housing. The crisis has been fueled by a continuous rise in property prices (in 2022 alone the appreciation was 19%, the highest in the last 30 years), rents (average growth of 35% since 2018) and by the escalation of interest rates.

In dozens of municipalities, with more demand, property prices doubled in 5 years. The crisis has led to a hectic reconfiguration of the social space, with consequent political wear and tear. In February, the prime minister dramatically announced a package of interventions in this sector. But the measures, many of them incompetent, were poorly received by public opinion and by the President of the Republic.

There are certainly many differences. In Brazil, from June 2013, crowds and pans took over the country’s cities in loud demonstrations of displeasure, initially against the increase in public transport fares. In contrast, Portuguese civil society is more numb and public expressions of displeasure are generally technical and unionised. Furthermore, in Portugal there is no Eduardo Cunha or Michel Temer ready to assault power from within power.

But the environment of helplessness and disdain for the political class is similar. In Brazil, Lava Jato instilled legitimacy in those who used the word political as a synonym for corruption, while the Portuguese are among the Europeans who least trust Parliament, the government and political parties. Voter abstention rates are also chronically high (in the 2022 elections, 49% did not vote).

The criminalization of the political class is a feast for the anti-establishment extreme right. In Brazil, the most common rat species are the house rat and the mouse. In Portugal, it is the black rat. But they all seek shelter close to the food source, they are carriers of various parasites, they are very adaptable and have an enormous reproductive capacity.

If Jair Bolsonaro could only emerge in Brazil, André Ventura, the leader of the radical right-wing party Chega, can only emerge in Portugal. Less Islamophobic and more Europeanist than his fellow European extremists, Ventura is a runaway megaphone of criticism of the political class. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, his party reached 7% (12 deputies). Polls currently give it 12%, that is, it is already the third largest party force in Portugal and its rise to power has become credible. Ventura has unleashed a list of insults against Lula. In early May, Jair Bolsonaro will visit Portugal for a global far-right convention, at the invitation of Chega.

Lula’s visit to Portugal resembles that of a grandson visiting a grandfather in a nursing home for the elderly. The manifestations of affection are limited to the time of the visit and the conversations are more about memories of the past than about the future. Brazil is a superlative country that has never recognized Portugal as a long-standing priority.

If Lula comes to Portugal to speak about the “brotherly relationship” between the two countries, hand out prizes, honor Portuguese-speaking personalities, sign memoranda of understanding and underline the importance of the sister country “as a gateway to Europe for Brazilian businessmen”, such as all its predecessors have done, it will be just another photogenic visit, with ritualized gestures and well-wishing words.

Saudade diplomacy has a certain symbolic relevance that cannot be neglected, it is true. But the two countries face key moments of transition and their collaborative impetus, at the diplomatic and governmental level, should be more tangible, reflecting demographic or academic dynamics.

In the arts, Brazilian choreographer Lia Rodrigues set the tone, presenting her new creation, “Encantado”, over the weekend in Lisbon, a blast of Afro-indigenous Brazilianness that left the Portuguese public stunned by the urgency of protecting freedom of thought and expression.

Lula should take advantage of his stay here to, in his contacts with businessmen and politicians, discuss plausible measures to avoid political extremism in the large space of Lusophony, with more support for the media, research and the eventual creation of an observatory.

It will not be an easy task, because Lula is a much less consensual person in Portugal than he was in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2010, when he visited the country as president. But the timing is ideal. His visit to Portugal coincides with the 25th of April, the great celebration of freedom.