IPCA: real savings gain exceeds 5% – 07/11/2023 – Market

In the wake of the relief in inflationary pressure, savings yielded 5.22% above inflation in a period of 12 months ended in June 2023, according to monitoring done by Einar Rivero, from the TradeMap platform. This was the first time that the real gain, that is, the income above inflation, surpassed the 5% level since August 2017.

The results are already positive since September last year and have been growing since then. In May, when the real yield was 4.40%, the indicator reached the highest return since October 2017.

The real return on savings was negative in the period between September 2020 and August 2022, in a scenario of high prices — stimulated, among other factors, by the fiscal stimuli granted by the Bolsonaro government.

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) released, this Tuesday (11), the IPCA (National Index of Broad Consumer Prices), which recorded deflation of 0.08% in June. This is the first drop in the indicator since September 2022, when there was a negative variation of 0.29%. At the time, the economy was experiencing the consequences of the tax cuts promoted by the Bolsonaro government on the eve of the elections.

Despite the decline in inflation and the increase in real earnings from savings, specialists say that the passbook is not the best option for making money yield. According to them, the CDB and investments linked to the CDI, for example, are more advantageous alternatives.

“In real terms, savings are improving their yield due to the drop in inflation. However, along with that, the CDI is earning much more. In the end, what interests the investor is to yield above inflation and increase purchasing power”, says Francisco Levy, chief strategist at Empiricus.

Michael Viriato, founding partner of Casa do Investidor and columnist for the blog De Grão em Grão, says that, at the moment, it is more worthwhile to invest in investments such as Dinheiro Direto. According to him, in the long term, the booklet should lose even more strength, especially for the new generations. “With the passage of time and with the evolution of financial education, there will be less and less people investing in savings. With the new generations, the tendency is for savings to end. Today there are many more investment possibilities.”

Bruno Mori, economist and founding partner of the financial planning consultancy Sarfin, points out an advantage of the CDB over savings: the money can be redeemed at any time with daily earnings. “Savings only pays every 30 days. If you want to redeem it before, you don’t receive anything from the income for that period”, he says.

Savings remuneration is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic is above 8.5% per year, plus the TR (Referential Rate) —today, the basic interest rate is maintained at 13.75%. When the Selic is up to 8.5%, the savings yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic plus the TR.