IPCA drops 0.08% in June and has first drop in 2023

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Country now has an accumulated inflation of 3.16% in the 12-month window. Food and beverages was the group with the biggest drop, followed by Transport. Grain prices fell in the semester and brought down the price of items such as soy oil CNA/Wanderson Araujo/Trilux The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), an indicator considered the country’s official inflation, fell 0.08 % in June, according to data released this Tuesday (11) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The index had the lowest change for the month of June since 2017, when it also fell by 0.23%. The IPCA result decelerated once again, following an advance of 0.23% in May. In the year, it accumulates a high of 2.87%. In June 2022, the index increased by 0.67%. As a result, the country now has an accumulated inflation of 3.16% in the 12-month window. Four of the nine IPCA groups fell in June. The overall indicator was pulled down especially by the groups Food and beverages (-0.66%) and Transport (-0.41%). (learn more below) According to André Almeida, an IBGE analyst, the two groups are the “heaviest” within the household consumption basket and represent around 42% of the IPCA. “The drop in the prices of these two groups was what most contributed to this result of deflation in the month of June”, he explains. See the result of the nine groups that make up the IPCA: Food and beverages: -0.66%; Housing: 0 .69%; Household items: -0.42%; Clothing: 0.35%; Transport: -0.41%; Health and personal care: 0.11%; Personal expenses: 0.36%; Education: 0 .06%; Communication: -0.14%. Food and Transport down The main decline within the Food and beverages group came from Food at home, which accumulated a 1.07% fall in the month. The main deflationary item was the soybean oil (-8.96%), which fell in the wake of the reduction in the prices of grains and other food commodities. “In recent months, the prices of grains, such as soybeans, have fallen. This directly impacted the price of soybean oil. soy and indirectly the prices of meat and milk, for example. These commodities are inputs for animal feed, and a lower price contributes to reducing production costs. In the case of milk, there is also a greater supply on the market”, explains André Almeida, from IBGE. The IBGE also highlights relevant falls in the prices of fruit (-3.38%), long-life milk (-2.68%) and meat (-2.10%). Food away from home increased by 0.46%, but slowed down compared to the previous month, when it had risen by 0.58%. Another important highlight was another reduction in the Transport group, with a reduction in the prices of all fuels. Gasoline, which has the highest individual weight in the group, had a decrease of 1.14%. Diesel oil dropped 6.68%. Ethanol, 5.11%. Finally, vehicle gas dropped by 2.77%. Airfares remain highly fluctuating, rising 10.96% in June, after falling 17.73% in May. Along with residential electricity (both with 0.06 pp), tickets brought the greatest pressure to the overall index. Zero car discount Still in the Transport group there was a decrease in the prices of new cars (-2.76%) and used cars (-0.93%). The new car sub-item had the greatest individual impact in the month, with -0.09 pp The result is an effect of the federal government’s discount program for popular cars, which granted discounts of R$ 2,000 to R$ 8,000 for luxury cars. small size, with a total value of up to R$ 120 thousand. More than 125,000 vehicles have been sold in one month since the launch of the initiative in early June. In all, R$ 650 million of the R$ 800 million foreseen in discounts for this modality were released. The remaining R$ 150 million will be used to compensate for the loss of tax collection caused by the discount on the final price of vehicles. According to calculations by André Almeida, without the reduction in the prices of new and used cars, the IPCA in June would have increased by 0.03%. Dealers had an increase of more than 260% in store flow, points out Fenabrave High in Housing At the opposite end, the Housing group (0.69%) had the most important increase in June, with the greatest positive contribution coming from energy prices residential electricity (1.43% and 0.06 pp). Following, the water and sewage rate (1.69%) also pressured prices upwards. According to the IBGE, in both cases, there were readjustments applied in some areas covered by the survey. The main reduction came from bottled gas (-3.82%), even without the effect of the last price adjustment by Petrobras on June 30th. Finally, the result of the group Health and personal care (0.11%) increased influenced by the increase in the prices of health plans (0.38%), still due to the readjustment authorized by the National Supplementary Health Agency (ANS). Service inflation Service inflation, one of the main metrics monitored by the Central Bank for a possible reduction in the basic interest rate, the Selic, increased by 0.62% in June. This is an acceleration in relation to May, when there was a deflation of 0.06% in the month. Who pulled the result of the segment, again, was the price of airline tickets and its rise of 10.96%. But items such as residential rent (0.78%) and condominium (1.67%) also have important pressure. Thus, the accumulated variation in 12 months for the inflation of services was 6.21%. It is the lowest rate since February 2022 (5.94%). INPC has drop of 0.10% in June The National Consumer Price Index (INPC) — which is used as a reference for readjustments of the minimum wage, as it calculates inflation for families with lower income — had a drop of 0.10% in June. In May, the high was 0.36%. Thus, the INPC accumulates an increase of 2.69% in the year and 3% in the last 12 months. In June 2022, the rate was 0.62%.

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