IPCA-15 in March stands at 0.69% after tax increases

The IPCA-15 increased by 0.69% in March, informed this Friday (24th) the IBGE. The data indicates a slowdown compared to February (0.76%) and is also lower than that of March 2022 (0.95%), but was slightly above the median market projection (0.67%). The increase in taxes on fuel and electricity was one of the main sources of pressure on the index.

In 12 months up to March, the IPCA-15 accumulates a rise of 5.36%, below the 5.63% accumulated up to February. The number, however, remains above the inflation target pursued by the Central Bank this year, which is 3.25%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points.

The IPCA-15 calculates inflation between the 16th of a month and the 15th of the following month. It is considered a preview of the “full” IPCA, which measures the price variation between the beginning and the end of each month and serves as a benchmark for the inflation targets pursued by the Central Bank.

According to the IBGE, out of eight groups and services surveyed in the IPCA-15, eight were discharged in March. There was a fall only in Home Articles (-0.18%).

The biggest variation (1.5%) and the biggest impact on the index (contribution of 0.3 percentage points) came from the Transport group. According to the IBGE, the average price of gasoline rose 5.76% after the resumption of federal tax collection at the turn of the month. This fuel alone accounted for 0.26 percentage points of the March IPCA-15.

Ethanol, which had been 1.65% cheaper in February, rose 1.96% in March. On the other hand, diesel (-4.86%) and vehicular natural gas (-2.62%) dropped in price. “It is also worth mentioning the 9.02% increase in transport by application, after a 6.05% decline in February”, informed the IBGE.

Another highlight of the month was the average increase of 2.85% in residential electricity, which contributed with 0.11 percentage points of inflation for the month. The main cause for the increase was the resumption of collection of ICMS on transmission (TUST) and distribution (TUSD) tariffs, determined by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) – an injunction issued by Minister Luiz Fux in February ended up confirmed by the plenary of the Court at the beginning March.