IPCA-15 in March stands at 0.69% after tax increases

IPCA-15 in March stands at 0.69% after tax increases

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The IPCA-15 increased by 0.69% in March, informed this Friday (24th) the IBGE. The data indicates a slowdown compared to February (0.76%) and is also lower than that of March 2022 (0.95%), but was slightly above the median market projection (0.67%). The increase in taxes on fuel and electricity was one of the main sources of pressure on the index.

In 12 months up to March, the IPCA-15 accumulates a rise of 5.36%, below the 5.63% accumulated up to February. The number, although remaining above the inflation target pursued by the Central Bank this year (3.25%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points), was read as a sign of relief, at least momentarily.

For Andrea Angelo, chief economist and inflation expert at brokerage Warren Rena, “there is an important slowdown in inflation going on.” In a report, she stated that this movement is caused by “the less favorable dynamics of economic activity and monetary policy that should have their effects intensified ahead”.

Economists at Terra Investimentos note that the so-called “core” inflation dropped in relation to February, but suggest caution and claim that it is premature to consider the data as an inflection in the inflation trend.

Rodolfo Margato, from XP Investimentos, was in the same vein: “It seems too early to say that the disinflation process will resume traction from now on, in view of the scenario of rising inflationary expectations, a depreciated exchange rate and some short-term stimuli to economic activity,” he wrote.

Taxation of fuels and energy pressured IPCA-15

The IPCA-15 calculates inflation between the 16th of a month and the 15th of the following month. It is considered a preview of the “full” IPCA, which measures the price variation between the beginning and the end of each month and serves as a benchmark for the inflation targets pursued by the Central Bank.

According to the IBGE, out of nine groups and services surveyed in the IPCA-15, eight were discharged in March. There was a fall only in Home Articles (-0.18%).

The biggest variation (1.5%) and the biggest impact on the index (contribution of 0.3 percentage points) came from the Transport group. According to the IBGE, the average price of gasoline rose 5.76% after the resumption of federal tax collection at the turn of the month. This fuel alone accounted for 0.26 percentage points of the March IPCA-15.

Ethanol, which had been 1.65% cheaper in February, rose 1.96% in March. On the other hand, diesel (-4.86%) and vehicular natural gas (-2.62%) dropped in price. “It is also worth mentioning the 9.02% increase in transport by application, after a 6.05% decline in February”, informed the IBGE.

Another highlight of the month was the average increase of 2.85% in residential electricity, which contributed with 0.11 percentage points of inflation for the month. The main cause for the increase was the resumption of collection of ICMS on transmission (TUST) and distribution (TUSD) tariffs, determined by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) – an injunction issued by Minister Luiz Fux in February ended up confirmed by the plenary of the Court at the beginning March.

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