India, the most populous country, faces youth bubbles – 04/19/2023 – World

The task of fixing day and time is impossible, but estimates allow predicting that by mid-2023 India will become the most populous country in the world, taking over the post that belonged to China since at least 1950, when records on the subject appeared. .

The country currently governed by Narendra Modi and considered the fifth largest global economy after surpassing the United Kingdom last year has more than 1.4 billion inhabitants and surpasses China by about 3 million, show UN projections.

The organization’s data also suggest that India’s jump to the top of the population ranking occurs in April, but estimates are always subject to a margin of error, so that this could happen in a few months. Or even have already happened.

The new Indian era, long announced, opens up a range of challenges for the Asian country, which is the main emerging economy in the world. And it brings questions to international partners, including Brazil, on how to take advantage of the “boom” of the Indian consumer market.

India is relevant for Brazilian foreign trade. In 2022, it was the tenth main destination for Brazilian exports, totaling US$6.3 billion (R$31.8 billion), and the fifth largest source of imports, with US$8.8 billion (R$44 billion). .4 billion), according to official Comex data.

But as it sees its population grow —which should occur for another 40 years—, India will have to respond to the dilemma of providing well-being to a population that is equivalent to more than six times that of Brazil and entering the labor market the new workforce.

The nation, after all, has a mostly young population: 55% of Indians are between 15 and 49 years old. But the domestic market has not been able to absorb the younger generation. Between 2021 and 2022, just 10.4% of people aged 15-24 were employed, data from the think tank Center for Monitoring the Indian Economy shows.

“There are 20 million people entering the job market per year”, says demographer José Eustáquio Alves. “If this wave of young people is well used, there is a demographic bonus. If it is not, there is a bubble of young people who may rebel because they are without opportunities.”

Eustáquio, one of the main Brazilian demographers, draws special attention to the low absorption of women in the market. Indian government figures show that only 25.1% of working-age women were absorbed into the workforce between 2020 and 2021.

There is also the challenge of providing education to this huge contingent, says Lía Rodriguez de la Vega, deputy director of the Asian Affairs Committee of the Argentine Council for International Relations. “If the country does not fulfill its commitments with the demographic bonus, the promise of generating a competitive scenario for future development could collapse.”

For the Argentine specialist, “India is a partner that everyone wants to have”. And arguments abound. Even though it is one of the protagonists of the wave of global autocratization —the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi is considered by some of the main research institutes to be undemocratic—, the country has been surprising in the economic field.

Projections by the World Bank and the IMF point out that India is the fastest growing economy in the world, with a projected growth of 7% this year. Despite the global economic crisis intensified by the War in Ukraine and the rise in commodity prices, the country has remained relatively stable largely due to domestic demand, with booming domestic consumption.

Examples of companies’ appetite for the country grow. This week, Apple opened its first two stores in India. According to research provider Counterpoint, the company represents about 6% of the local smartphone market – something around 9.1 million units according to 2022 figures (or 0.6% of the local population). The goal is to increase these numbers.

And there is, of course, the weight of foreign policy. Like Brazil, India is a member of BRICS. Alongside the main global economies, it is also part of the G20 —a forum that, incidentally, it is chairing today on a rotating basis. The country is also part of the Quad (called by China the “Pacific mini-NATO”) and the Central Asian Shanghai Cooperation Organization —a forum that he will also preside over from September.

In order to develop sustainably, the country will also have to weigh the weight of the climate emergency. India, after all, is one of the biggest global polluters, accounting for 7% of carbon emissions — the same percentage as the 27 countries of the European Union combined.

The bill is already being paid: heat waves in the country are increasingly frequent, intense and lethal, which overloads the health system, weakens agriculture and, thus, delays development.

And while dealing with immediate challenges, New Delhi also needs to project those that are future. Four decades from now, India will face a process similar to what China is experiencing today: population decline and aging.

In the Chinese case, the country’s fertility rate —number of children per woman— is currently around 1.2, when the average for growth is 2.1. In parts, the scenario results from years of state measures by the communist regime, such as the one-child policy. In the Indian case, the fertility rate is still around 2.

Research released this Wednesday (19) by the UN Population Fund showed that Indians, when compared to citizens of six other countries, including Brazil, are the most concerned about the size of the population and the consequences that this may have. . For 60% of the thousand Indian respondents, it is precisely the economy that generates the most fear in the future.