In 5 points: What Datafolha says about Lula and the economy – 03/04/2023 – Market

The Datafolha survey evaluating the first three months of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s government points to a challenging economic scenario for the PT in his third term, with more Brazilians foreseeing a worsening economy in the coming months.

Expectations are also bad for inflation and unemployment, but there is good news for the PT: he is not alone in complaining about the high level of the basic interest rate and is supported by the criticism he has made of the Central Bank.

Datafolha interviewed 2,028 people aged 16 or over in 126 cities, from Wednesday (29) to Thursday (30). The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points.

See the main results of the survey, in five points:

• Outlook for the economy in the coming months: 46% believe that the economic situation will improve, 26% say it will get worse and also 26% say it will stay as it is. There are 2% who do not know.
• Pessimism increases compared to the period immediately after the election: On December 19 and 20, 2022, 49% said the economy would get better, 20% said it would get worse, and 28% said it would stay the same.
• Optimism is higher in low income: Among those who receive up to two minimum wages (R$ 2,604), 52% say that the Brazilian economy will improve, while of those who receive more than ten minimum wages (R$ 13,020), 55% speak of a worsening.
• More Brazilians say they expect high unemployment inflation: 54% say that inflation should increase in the coming months, 20% say it should decrease and 24% think it will remain as it is. For unemployment, 44% expect an increase, 29% expect a reduction and 26% see no change.
• Lula is not the only one irritated by the interest rate, set by the Central Bank: For 71% of respondents, the Selic is higher than it should be, 17% consider it adequate, and 5% say it is below the appropriate level. 80% responded that Lula is right to pressure the BC to cut interest rates and 16% blame the president.