Ibovespa operates high, with positive exterior and political agenda on the radar

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On Friday, the main index of the Brazilian stock exchange fell 1.02%, to 115,837 points. In the previous week, it accumulated gains of 0.37%. Ibovespa Pixabay The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo stock exchange, the B3, operated on a high this Monday (28th), with repercussions from the internal political agenda and the Focus bulletin, published this morning. International indicators and signals about the Chinese economy are also under the spotlight. At 11:18 am, the index was up 0.40%, at 116,304 points. See more quotes. Last Friday, the Ibovespa closed at 1.02%, at 115,837 points. With the result, the index started to accumulate: high of 0.37% between August 21st and 25th; drop of 5.01 in the month; and gain of 5.56% in the year. What is messing with the markets? What is messing with the markets? On the domestic agenda, the Focus bulletin, from the Central Bank, shows that economists in the financial market have increased the growth estimate for the Gross Domestic Product in 2023 to 2.31%. The previous forecast was 2.29%. For 2024, the projection is for an increase of 1.33% The inflation forecast for 2023, in turn, remained at 4.9%, after rising last week — the estimate for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) ) remains above the ceiling of the target (between 1.75% and 4.75%). The estimate for 2024 increased from 3.86% to 3.87%. In 2025 and 2026, the indicator remains at 3.5%. And the expectation of the basic interest rate, the Selic, remained at 11.75% for 2023. As for 2024, the estimate remains at 9% for the year. On the market’s radar for the political agenda is the possible definition of the ministerial reform this week to accommodate the Centrão and strengthen Lula’s support base in Congress “to then approve the matters of the economic agenda”, says Alvaro Frasson, economist at BTG Pactual . For example, the Senate is due to vote on Wednesday (30) the project by the Administrative Council of Fiscal Resources (Carf), considered by the government one of the main measures to circumvent the primary deficit of the federal government this year, of R$ 231.5 billion. Another point of attention for investors is the Chinese real estate market — the most important for the activity of the second largest economy in the world. With the worsening of the crisis, companies in the steel and mining sectors are hampered by the lack of Chinese demand, such as Vale (VALE3). Given that the company has a weight of 12.53% in the index, the expectation of deterioration in the share price may interfere with the Ibovespa, believes Pedro Canto, an analyst at CM Capital. In one month, the paper fell 8.22%. The United States, in turn, releases GDP results for the 2nd quarter this week, on Wednesday. Also on the list of releases are the July consumer spending deflator on Thursday and August labor market results on Friday. READ MORE Shares of Chinese real estate group Evergrande plunged nearly 80% on the Hong Kong stock exchange

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