Ibovespa opens higher this Monday, in Copom week

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On Friday, the main index of the stock exchange rose 0.16%, to 120,187 points. Ibovespa operates in low, pulled by the exterior. Freepik The Ibovespa, the main index of the São Paulo stock exchange, the B3, operates on a high this Monday (31), with expectations about the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank, which takes place this week . At 10:30 am, the index rose 1.28%, to 121,766 points. See more quotes. On Friday, the Ibovespa closed up 0.16%, at 120,187 points. With the result, the index began to accumulate: a drop of 0.02% in the week; increases of 1.78% in the month and 9.53% in the year. What is messing with the markets? Local investors await the Central Bank’s monetary policy decision this Wednesday, which should reduce the Selic rate for the first time in two years. This Monday, BC released a new edition of the Focus bulletin. Financial market economists again reduced the inflation forecast for this year, which dropped from 4.90% to 4.84%. For 2024, the financial market’s inflation projection dropped from 3.90% to 3.89%. For this year’s GDP growth, the financial market’s projection remained stable at 2.24% last week. As for 2024, the financial market growth forecast continued at 1.30%. The expectation for the economy’s basic interest rate, the Selic, remained stable at 12% per year for the end of 2023. For the end of 2024, the projection dropped from 9.5% to 9.25% per year. On the corporate front, Petrobras advanced nearly 3% after its board of directors approved a new dividend policy. The state-owned company also releases its quarterly balance sheet this week, as does Bradesco. Overseas, eurozone economic growth recorded a slight recovery in the second quarter, after stagnating in the first three months of the year. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continues to be hampered by Germany’s difficulties and interest rate increases, in a scenario of high inflation. The GDP of the 20 countries in the region increased by 0.3% in quarterly terms between April and June, according to the first estimates by Eurostat (European Agency for Statistics). The result remained stagnant (0%) in the first quarter, according to data revised by Eurostat, which had initially announced a fall of 0.1%. The tightening of the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) to fight inflation also affects the economy, with the restriction of access to credit, which impacts investments and consumption. Eurozone inflation fell further in July and most measures of underlying price growth also eased, in a very reassuring sign for the ECB. Consumer prices grew 5.3% this month on an annual basis, against 5.5% in June, extending the downward trend. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, prices rose 6.6% after rising 6.8% the previous month. While this is still a long way from the ECB’s 2% target, the reading could help policymakers make the case that inflation in the euro zone is on a clear, if mild, downward trajectory and they can afford to skip a hike. interest rates at least at the next meeting. “The latest data has been consistent with the disinflation trend,” Frederik Ducrozet, head of macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management, told Reuters. China’s manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in July, while the services and construction sectors teetered on the brink of contraction, official surveys showed on Monday, threatening third-quarter growth prospects. Construction sector activity in July was the weakest since Covid-19-related workplace disruptions ended around February, data from the Office for National Statistics showed. The world’s second-largest economy grew at a sluggish pace in the second quarter as demand remained weak at home and abroad, leading the Politburo – the Communist Party’s decision-making body – to describe the economic recovery as “crooked”. The industry’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 49.3 in July from 49.0 in June, but was still below the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The last time this indicator contracted for more than three consecutive months was between May and October 2019, before the pandemic, suggesting that negative sentiment among plant managers had become especially persistent. The non-manufacturing PMI, which incorporates sub-indices for services and construction activities, fell to 51.5 from 53.2 in June. The construction sub-index, a major employer amid a broader jobless crisis, fell from a peak of 65.6 in March to 51.2 this month. “The sharp drop in construction activity is a worrying sign of a potential death spiral in the real estate sector,” Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told Reuters.

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