How is Lula 3 after being beaten by the center-right – 06/10/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

The center-right of Congress put a knife to the government’s neck during the vote on the provisional measure that reorganized ministries and high public administration, as is well known. Lula 3 ran some risk of regressing to the dark government format (2019-2022).

The “message” was understood, a more organized boarding of the center-right in the government is being negotiated and ministers are being called to change their relationship with parliamentarians. But the balance of this almost first half of Lula 3 is better than it seems, in the view of ministers and those responsible for political articulation.

These Planalto people say that almost all of the government’s priority measures are being approved. Examples follow later in this text.

What changes? União Brasil wants to rename at least one of the ministries that, nominally, would belong to the party (but they are not: the government had made an agreement with the leadership of União Brasil).

The majority of the Republicans (Universal’s party) want to join the government, especially the North and Northeast groups. But the engineering is complicated. The party has a wing of Bolsonarism and its leadership cannot make a formal agreement with Lula 3. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, and Senator Damares Alves (Federal District) are Republicans.

The PP of Arthur Lira, president of the Chamber, is also negotiating terms of peace and positions with Lula 3. The Bolsonarist group or those identified with the previous government, such as Ciro Nogueira, “liberated” their colleagues.

In addition to taking ministries, this trio of parties can occupy command positions in certain portfolios, state, etc.

In Planalto, it is said that the entire government is now aware of the “new political reality”. Congress is used to more power since Michel Temer. Under Jair Bolsonaro, he became a budget execution manager, far beyond parliamentary amendments. Legislative decrees, the overthrow of vetoes and the dispute over appointments to State agencies have shown the Executive, in recent years, that the Legislative wants and has more executive power (sic).

For Planalto de Lula 3, it will not be possible to return to the balance of power of 2010, but it is necessary to “review the relationship” established in the second half of the government of darkness. On certain issues, such as the environment or the “customs agenda”, the government will be “lucky” to come out alive (if it manages to avoid serious setbacks).

What went right, in Planalto’s view?

The government contributed to a calm election, without political risk, for the presidencies of the House and Senate. The PT or its allies took command of important congressional commissions, such as the Chamber’s Constitution and Justice, in addition to preventing the extreme right from leading others, such as Human Rights or the Environment. The “bomb agenda”, measures approved by the government of darkness at the end of the mandate, was overthrown.

Social programs have been reinstituted or are on the verge of doing so: Bolsa Família, Minha Casa Minha Vida, Mais Médicos. There was a defeat in the case of Funasa, revived, a hanger of political appointments in Health that many government tries to extinguish. It will be difficult to change CARF (like getting the government back to having a majority in the Revenue administrative court), but the case would not be lost.

The “fiscal framework” should pass almost as designed by the government. Planalto people think they will also approve the tax reform in the first half of the year. In this case, optimism may be excessive. Only now, when real money is discussed, will the trouble begin. Mayors, states and utility companies want so many privileges that, as usual, reform can fall apart or be disfigured to the point of futility.

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