GDP: Tebet sees reinforced optimism and expects a 2% increase – 06/01/2023 – Market

The Minister of Planning, Simone Tebet (MDB), is optimistic about the Brazilian economy after the GDP result for the first quarter of the year released this Thursday (º).

The IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) calculated an increase of 1.9% in the first three months of the year, while market analysts expected an advance of 1.3%.

“We are expecting that if nothing else grows, even so [o PIB vai] reach 2.3%, undoing any more pessimistic expectations that we all had at the beginning of the year”, he evaluated. “Brazil will grow more than 2% [em 2023]”, reiterated the minister a little later.

In a conversation with journalists this Thursday morning, she made the reservation that the government’s official estimates for economic growth are made by the Ministry of Finance and that her projection is personal.

The portfolio commanded by Haddad said in a note that the GDP result for the first quarter “increases the positive bias for the year”.

The positive numbers for the Brazilian economy are, in the minister’s view, the result of announcements by the economic team, “the first initiatives announced since the end of last year”. “There is also confidence from the market, investors,” she continued.

“The approval of the framework gives credibility, it shows that the economic team is on the right path”, he evaluated. For the minister, the growth of the economy rebuts criticism made to the framework, which it would depend excessively on an increase in revenues.

Tebet hopes that other measures already adopted by the federal government will have effects from the second quarter, sustaining economic growth.

“Some impacts have not yet appeared: the minimum wage with appreciation was given now, it did not take the first quarter. The incorporation of families in the Bolsa Família, promotion programs, all this is taken in the sum”, he evaluated.

She also cited the measures adopted by the government to make cars costing up to R$ 120,000 cheaper. “[A medida] it has very temporary durability, but it heats up the economy this year”, he said.

The GDP result also reinforces the Executive’s desire for a drop in interest rates, said Tebet.

“This breaks the argument that growth has too much impact on inflation and has to have high interest rates. We grew above expectations with a decrease in inflation expectations”, he analyzed.

“Even with a more heated economy than the Focus forecast, there is a drop in inflation. It is not due to demand, we do not have this inflation due to demand as many believe”, he added.