Gasoline price should hit R$ 5.50 with return of taxes – 02/28/2023 – Market

The resumption of the collection of federal taxes on gasoline should bring the fuel back to around R$ 5.50, a level last seen in August 2022, according to the projection of Ativa Corretora.

The projection considers the price of fuel at the pumps plus the addition of R$ 0.34 per liter, an impact expected by the government with the return of taxes, which will cost R$ 0.47 per liter, discounting the cut of R$ 0.13 announced by Petrobras this Tuesday (28).

The final impact, however, depends on several factors, such as the commercial policy of distributors and service stations and the variation in anhydrous ethanol, which represents 27% of the mixture sold at service stations.

The calculation was based on the average price of gasoline in Brazil two weeks ago, R$ 5.07 per liter, according to a survey carried out by the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels).

This Tuesday, the ANP released last week’s survey, with an average gasoline price of R$ 5.08 per liter, practically stable in relation to the previous week.

The market expected an increase of up to R$ 0.69 per liter, the value of the rates before the exemption promoted by former President Jair Bolsonaro in May 2022. To guarantee lower rates without loss of revenue, the government decided to tax oil exports Brazilian.

According to Ativa Corretora, the increase has a potential impact of 0.39 percentage points on the IPCA, the official inflation index in the country, with greater pressure in March and residual pressure in April.

“Through government action, our outlook for the 2023 IPCA will jump from 6.2% to 6.8%. By inertia we raised our outlook for 2024 from 3.7% to 4.0%”, wrote the chief economist from the broker, Étore Sanchez.

Sanchez believes that the tax on exports will not have the effect desired by the government, since the temporary nature of the tax can postpone sales operations. “The temporary tax generates a postponement of business, even more in globalized commodities”, he says.

“In other words, oil has more value in stock than being exported, given the prospect of future revenue after the tax is removed in four months.”

The reencumbrance also has an impact on the price of hydrated ethanol, but marginally, since the government has defined the rates at R$ 0.02 per liter. Last week, the fuel was sold at an average price of R$ 3.79 per liter, according to the ANP.

The price of diesel should maintain a downward trend, as the state-owned company announced a 1.9% cut in the sale value of its refineries. Fuel has been falling for three weeks, with reduction transfers promoted by the state-owned company at the beginning of the month.

Since then, the accumulated drop is 5.3%. Last week, the product was sold at R$ 6.05, the lowest value since March 2022. This product will remain without federal taxes until the end of the year.

“[O diesel] has a very big impact on the production chain”, said the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, in an interview to detail the re-encumbrance of fuels this Tuesday.