Gasoline price: see increase by state with new ICMS – 06/01/2023 – Market

“The new gasoline ICMS comes into force this Thursday (1st), with expectations of an increase in fuel prices in most parts of the country, since the new rate is R$ 0.20 per liter higher than the average charged in the model previous.

The tax is now charged only at the production or import stage and at a single rate for the entire national territory, in reais per liter —instead of percentages of the product’s sales price.

The new model was approved by Congress in March 2022, with the support of former President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and the fuel sector, which sees a lower risk of fraud with a single rate in all states.

The new model has been working for diesel and bottled gas since April. In the case of gasoline, the states even proposed a rate of R$ 1.45 per liter, which would put even more pressure on the pump price, but dropped to R$ 1.22 after reaching an agreement with the STF (Federal Supreme Court).

According to calculations by consultant Dietmar Schupp, a specialist in fuel taxation, 22 states and the Federal District used values ​​lower than the new rate and, therefore, should experience price increases.

In three, Amazonas, Piauí and Alagoas, the rate was higher and the price should fall. In Roraima, there should be no variation.

The state with the highest expectation of high prices is Mato Grosso do Sul (R$ 0.30 per liter), which would represent an increase of 6% over the average value at local gas stations, of R$ 4.94 per liter. In another ten states, the expected increase is higher than the national average, between R$ 0.25 and R$ 0.29 per liter.

In São Paulo, the new rate is R$ 0.26 per liter higher than the one currently charged. In Rio de Janeiro, the difference is R$ 0.11 per liter.

See the difference by state:

In July, the price of gasoline was again pressured by the full resumption of federal taxes on fuel, which had been zeroed by Bolsonaro and partially resumed by Lula in March.

It’s R$ 0.34 per liter of PIS/Cofins. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad went so far as to say that Petrobras had withheld part of the cut to compensate for the tax increase, but he backtracked after the state company refused.

The two changes put pressure on inflation for the year. According to economist Claudia Moreno, from C6 Bank, the new ICMS represents an impact of 0.22 percentage points on the IPCA, and the return of the tax, of 0.35 percentage points.

“The two measures together should generate an impact of 0.57 points on the closed inflation of 2023. However, this does not change our forecast of 6% for the 2023 IPCA”, she says, noting that she had already incorporated the changes in the forecast .