Gasoline price increases this Thursday with new ICMS; see estimate in each state

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State tax will be charged at a fixed rate of R$ 1.22 per liter. Price should go up in the vast majority of states. Change in ICMS on gasoline should raise prices The states will make changes in the format of charging ICMS on gasoline from this Thursday (1st). The new measure should raise the average price of a liter of fuel in Brazil (see below), according to consultancy estimates. The state tax will be charged at a fixed rate (in reais) of R$ 1.22 per liter from Thursday. The value is valid for all states. Until this Wednesday (31), the tax was calculated as a percentage of the price, which varies from 17% to 23%, depending on the state. According to an estimate by the Brazilian Infrastructure Center (CBIE), in this format, the current average ICMS charged by the states was equivalent to R$ 1.0599 per liter of gasoline – below the fixed rate that will come into effect. With the validity of the new value of R$ 1.22 per liter, estimated the CBIE, there will be an average increase of R$ 0.16 per liter from June 1, which represents an average increase of 22% for ICMS alone . Fuel station. Reproduction/EPTV The ICMS is just a part of the total price of gasoline. According to Petrobras, the state tax has a weight of 20.5% in the total cost of the product to the consumer. So, although the average ICMS increase in the country is 22%, in the calculation of the CBIE, the impact on the consumer will be smaller. See the estimate by state further down in this report. According to the National Committee of Secretaries of Finance, Finance, Revenue or Taxation of the States and the Federal District (Comsefaz), which brings together finance secretaries of the states, the new charging format “was defined using the concept of essentiality within the context of a single national rate”. The change in ICMS calculation tends to consume part of the price drop announced by Petrobras in mid-May. At the time, the state-owned company announced that the price of a liter of gasoline was reduced from R$ 3.18 to R$ 2.78, a decrease of R$ 0.40 or 12.6%. The video below, from May 17, shows how the proposal should impact the consumer’s pocket. The reduction was announced after Petrobras announced a new policy for fuels, which now considers two market references: the “customer’s alternative cost, as a value to be prioritized in pricing”, and the “marginal value for Petrobras”. How should Petrobras’ new pricing policy impact the consumer’s pocket? Impact by state As each state currently charges a different percentage of ICMS on the price of gasoline, the unification of rates and the adoption of a level in reais (known as “ad rem”) of R$ 1.22 for all different prices. According to calculations by Leggio Consultoria, which specializes in oil, gas and renewable energy, the cost of fuel to consumers is expected to become more expensive in the vast majority of states. Only in Alagoas, Amazonas and Piauí is it possible to reduce the final price of gasoline. Expectation of variation in the average resale price of gasoline by state after the change in ICMS This Tuesday (30), the Secretary of the National Treasury, Rogério Ceron, assessed that the new taxation of ICMS on gasoline should impact the consumer, but marginal. That’s because, for Ceron, the new rate will be offset by a better external environment, driven by the drop in the price of a barrel of oil on the international market. “In June, a new state taxation comes in, the ICMS adjustment, which should have some impact, but even the sum of these impacts, looking retrospectively at prices, should still be at lower levels than there were before the announcement of Petrobras’ latest price reductions,” he said. “Looking at the horizon at the beginning of the year, at what prices were practiced, it tends to generate a gain for the final consumer in terms of prices practiced at the pumps”, completed the secretary. Haddad cites possible compensation This month, the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, indicated that Petrobras, a state-owned company controlled by the Union, can act to prevent or, at least, mitigate increases in prices due to the increase in taxes. For that, the company would have to lower fuel prices at the pump when the tax increases start to take effect – which was done previously, in February this year, when there was an increase in federal taxes. “With the increase [de tributos] scheduled for July 1st, will be absorbed by the drop in price left for that day. We didn’t download everything we could. Just waiting for the 1st of July, when the export tax ends and the reencumbrance cycle ends”, he declared on May 17, in the Chamber of Deputies. On that occasion, however, the minister spoke specifically about the increase in PIS/Cofins, taxes federal, which will take place in July. He did not mention the change in ICMS taxation, scheduled for this week. With shares listed on the stock exchange, Petrobras released a material fact on the same day. “Petrobras does not anticipate readjustment decisions and reinforces that there is no decision taken by its Executive Market and Pricing Group (GEMP) that has not yet been announced to the market,” the company said on May 17.

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