Follow the dollar exchange rate today (8) – 09/08/2023 – Market

The Brazilian stock exchange opened lower this Friday (8) on the return day of the holiday on September 7, reflecting negative adjustments to receipts from Brazilian companies traded in the US in the trading session on Thursday (7). As a backdrop, the American market continues with a downward bias amid fears about a possible new interest rate hike this year.

The dollar, on the other hand, opened the session in decline, but started to hover around stability in a session that should have reduced volumes precisely because of the post-holiday period. Investors are awaiting next week’s US inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, scheduled for later this month.

At 10:27 am, the Ibovespa fell 0.60%, to 115,285 points, while the dollar remained stable at R$4.983.

Abroad, the climate remains negative for risky assets. Investors are still cautious on account of the economic slowdown in China, and new data on the American job market have raised fears about a new interest rate hike in the United States this year.

“The labor market data [dos EUA] continued to show resilience in the latest figures received this week, with initial claims for unemployment insurance falling and the cost of labor rising. Amid such pressures, the market speculates whether the Fed may raise interest rates again at the November meeting”, says the team at Guide Investimentos.

In Europe, recent inflation and GDP data were also worse than expected.

In Brazil, the day’s agenda is empty and should have less financial volume. The Guide team highlights, however, the conclusion of the ministerial reform of the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), which took place on Wednesday (6) after the market closed and may help to unlock measures from the economic agenda in Congress.

On Thursday, when there was no trading on B3 due to Independence Day, MSCI Brazil, the main Brazilian ETF (Exchange Traded Fund, which replicates the performance of reference indices) traded in New York and a relevant global reference for Brazilian shares , fell 1.95%. North American stock markets also fell, still affected by news from Apple.

In Wednesday’s session, the Brazilian Stock Exchange recorded a sharp drop of 1.14% and closed at 115,985 points, following American indices and amid caution on the eve of a holiday in Brazil. Concerns about the Brazilian fiscal scenario weighed on business and reinforced the negative bias of the Ibovespa.

The dollar, on the other hand, had a volatile session, but rose slightly after the release of data on economic activity in the United States, with the market still reflecting fears about new interest rate hikes in the country. The American currency ended the day with an increase of 0.16%, quoted at R$4.984.

The negotiations were based on US service data, which came in stronger than expected and revived warnings about possible new interest rate hikes in the country.

The final US services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at 50.5 in August, weaker than the preliminary reading of 51.0 and close to the threshold that separates growth from contraction.

On the other hand, a separate private survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US services sector unexpectedly gained strength in August, on firm new orders and companies paying prices higher prices for inputs — possible signs of still high inflationary pressures.

The recent rise in oil prices, whose barrel has been trading above US$ 90, also increased fears of pressures on inflation that could force the Fed to maintain the tightening of interest rates.

Thus, the mood remained negative in American business. Bets that the Fed’s monetary tightening (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) can be maintained for longer were not discarded and boosted US bond yields, giving strength to the dollar.

The movement also brought down American stock indices, which registered a sharp drop. The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 0.70%, 0.57% and 1.06%, respectively.

In this scenario, the Ibovespa registered a drop, mainly due to Vale’s shares, which fell 1.73%.

Another negative highlight of the session was the financial sector, after the approval in the Chamber of Deputies of the project that limits interest on revolving credit cards. Itaú and Bradesco, for example, fell 1.03% and 1.30%, respectively, and were among the most traded stocks of the session, while the index that brings together companies in the sector fell 1.22%.

The biggest fall of the day, however, was from Vamos, a truck rental company that made its debut on the Ibovespa this week. The company’s shares fell 7.10% after a purchase recommendation cut by JPMorgan.

Drops in IRB Brasil (4.49%), CVC (4.93%), Arezzo (4.34%) and Carrefour (3.57%) completed the list of biggest falls in the trading session.

“The main downside for today is the contamination with the negative scenario abroad, mainly due to the uncertainty regarding the interest rate decision in the US. In addition, the low liquidity and tomorrow’s holiday reduce the impetus to risk by investors “, says Castro.

According to Terra Investimentos analyst Luis Novaes, the absence of trading sessions on Thursday, when the Stock Exchange will be closed for the September 7th holiday, corroborated the more selling bias determined by the negative outlook abroad.

Petrobras, in turn, mitigated the fall of the Ibovespa, which saw an increase of 0.48% in its preferred shares and 0.44% in its common shares, driven precisely by the rise in oil prices abroad. Furthermore, petrochemical company Braskem rose 5.56% and recorded the biggest gain of the day.

With Reuters