Focus: market sees lower Selic rate and higher inflation in 2023 – 04/17/2023 – Market

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank began to see a greater easing of monetary policy this year, while at the same time raising the outlook for inflation in 2023 above 6%.

The Focus survey released by the BC this Monday (12) points out that the expectation now is that the Selic basic interest rate will end this year at 12.50%, from 12.75% before.

For the May and June monetary policy meetings, the market assesses that the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) will still maintain the rate at the current level of 13.75%.

The interest projection for 2024 remains at 10.00% at the end of the year.

At the same time, the survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the expectation for the IPCA rise in 2023 rose to 6.01%, from 5.98% in the previous week. For 2024 the account also rose, by 0.04 percentage points, to 4.18%, but for the following two years it remained at 4.0%.

The center of the official inflation target for 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 and 2025 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate is now 0.90% for 2023 and 1.40% for 2024, respectively 0.91% and 1.44% in the previous survey.