Focus: Market sees higher inflation and interest rates in 2024 – 01/23/2023 – Market

The market has once again raised the prospects for inflation both this year and next, starting to calculate the highest basic interest rate in 2024, according to the Focus survey by the Central Bank released this Monday (23)

According to the weekly survey, the Selic should end this year at 12.50%, unchanged, but 2024 will close with a rate of 9.50%, from 9.25% projected before.

Currently, the rate is at 13.75%, a level that should be maintained at the Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting on January 31st and February 1st, according to the median of expectations in Focus.

Accounts for the increase in the IPCA in the survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, continued to increase. Inflation is now estimated at 5.48% in 2023 and 3.84% in 2024, up from 5.39% and 3.70% respectively in the previous week.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth projection this year improved by 0.02 percentage points, to 0.79%, while for 2024 it remained at 1.50%