Focus: market reduces Selic forecast to 12% this year – 7/3/2023 – Market

Market analysts reduced their estimates for inflation until 2026 and began to see greater monetary easing this year, according to the Focus survey released by BC (Central Bank) this Monday (3).

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, showed that the expectation now is that the basic interest rate Selic ends 2023 at 12.00%, from 12.25% expected before.

At the last meeting, the BC left the Selic at 13.75%, but indicated in the minutes of that meeting the possibility of initiating a “parsimonious” monetary easing at the next meeting, in August.

Focus shows that economists continue to see a cut of 0.25 percentage points in August, which was already expected.

The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed reductions in the outlook for inflation from 2023 to 2026, with an estimated rise in the IPCA below 5% this year.

The forecasts are now for inflation of 4.98% in 2023, 3.92% in 2024, 3.60% in 2025 and 3.50% in 2026. In the previous survey, the estimates were respectively 5.06%, 3 .98%, 3.80% and 3.72%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate this year improved by 0.01 percentage point, to 2.19%, while for 2024 it rose to 1.28%, from 1.22%.