Focus: GDP growth projections improve for 2023 – 07/17/2023 – Market

The market improved its expectations for the growth of the Brazilian economy in 2023 and 2024, while leaving inflation forecasts unchanged, showed the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday (17).

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the expectation for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) expansion this year improved by 0.05 percentage points, going to 2.24%. For 2024, the increase in the estimate was 0.02 points, to 1.30%.

At the same time, the weekly survey of a hundred economists showed that there were no changes in the inflation scenario, after a series of reductions, with the rise in the IPCA calculated at 4.95% and 3.92% respectively this year and in the next.

However, for 2025 the projection for inflation dropped to 3.55%, from 3.60%. For 2026 there were also no changes and the increase in the IPCA is calculated at 3.50%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

The specialists consulted also did not change their estimates for the basic Selic interest rate, which continues to be calculated at 12.0% at the end of this year and at 9.50% in 2024, compared to the current 13.75%.

They also continue to see a 0.25 percentage point cut in the Selic at the next Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, in early August.