Focus: economists raise inflation expectations to 5.78% – 02/06/2023 – Market

Analysts consulted by the BC (Central Bank) once again raised the inflation projection for 2023, showed the Focus survey released this Monday (6). The market expects an increase in the IPCA this year of 0.04 percentage points and 0.03 points for 2024, respectively at 5.78% and 3.93%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less.

The market also raised the outlook for the Selic (basic interest rate) in 2024, amidst a scenario of growing inflationary pressures.

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that experts now see the Selic at 9.75% in 2024, from 9.50% the previous week.

Last week, at the first meeting of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva took office, the BC decided to keep the Selic rate at 13.75% per annum and stressed that fiscal uncertainty and the deterioration in expectations of market inflation raise the cost for the monetary authority to reach its targets.

For the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the growth estimate in 2023 had a downward adjustment of 0.01 point, at 0.79%, while for next year it continued at 1.50%.

Focus shows that the basic rate should still be maintained at this level at the March Copom meeting, and that the experts consulted continue to see the Selic at 12.50% at the end of this year.