Focus: analysts reduce inflation projections – 07/25/2023 – Market

Analysts consulted by the BC (Central Bank) lowered their expectations for inflation from 2023 to 2025 and saw the dollar below R$5 this year, but maintained their expectation of a cut of 0.25 percentage points in the Selic next week.

According to the Focus survey released this Monday (25), the projection for the rise in the IPCA fell to 4.90%, 3.90% and 3.50%, respectively, in 2023, 2024 and 2025, from 4.95%, 3.92% and 3.55% before. For 2026, the projection for inflation remained at 3.50%.

The center of the official target for inflation in 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024, 2025 and 2026 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, also showed that analysts continue to see a reduction in the basic interest rate at next week’s BC meeting from the current 13.75% to 13.50%. They also maintained the scenario that the Selic will end this year at 12.0% and the next at 9.50%.

The weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed that the dollar was estimated at R$ 4.97 at the end of 2023, against R$ 5 in the previous week. For 2024, the US currency continues to be calculated at R$5.05.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), growth estimates remained at 2.24% and 1.30% for this year and the next.