Flight to Egypt and death in Gaza – 10/17/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

The Egyptian government announced that it will host a meeting on Saturday (21) to call for a ceasefire in Gaza and find a way to send humanitarian aid to the Palestinians. He called on the powers of the region and the permanent members of the UN Security Council.

Americans and Europeans want the Egyptians to open the border with Gaza, first of all to receive citizens from their countries and foreigners in general. They also want Egypt to welcome Palestinians fleeing bombs and food shortages.

There is no information regarding how the exodus to Egypt would be possible, an estimate of how many people would cross the border and who would pay the initial bill for settling refugees in Sinai (the Egyptian region that borders Gaza and Israel). There is even less news that there is any idea of ​​how to deal with the consequences of this new mass expulsion of Palestinians from their lands.

Egypt does not want to receive the Palestinians because it does not have the means to care for them, because it fears importing people from Hamas, Islamic Jihad or their successors and fears a permanent occupation of parts of Gaza by Israel.

The most immediate problem is how many refugees there are. 250 thousand? 500 thousand? The million people who lived in northern Gaza, marked for death by Israel? And the other 1.2 million?

Suppose this is possible. Let the UN, for example, receive money to provide shelter, food and water for hundreds of thousands in desert Sinai. What will become of the rest of the Palestinians?

In theory, Gaza would continue to be besieged and attacked until Hamas is annihilated, whatever that means, as the Israeli government wants.

Israel decides whether Gaza has electricity (by direct transmission or by supplying diesel to the region’s only power plant). It decides whether Gaza has water (which comes from Israel or from wells or desalination, which depends on electricity). Israel decides whether aid convoys currently stopped in Egypt can enter Gaza and which, at the very least, could be collateral victims of Israeli bombings.

Suppose that, once Hamas is “annihilated”, the war is interrupted for weeks or months. Where will the Palestinians return? A considerable part of their homes, hospitals and public services will have been destroyed. Where will you work? Only 35% of the population is in the workforce (either with a job or looking for one. In Brazil, it’s around 61%). After the ruin it will be worse.

Will Palestinians have electricity and water from Israel? Will they be able to leave Gaza? Last year, Israel allowed only 1,163 Palestinians to leave Gaza, on a daily average (they may always be the same, as the majority were temporary workers); Egypt, 397. Palestinian imports are controlled by Israel (which fears the purchase of materials for the construction of weapons and bombs, for example, but not only that).

In other words, in the best case scenario now visible, the Palestinians of Gaza would return to the same prison, but now more destroyed. Under which government? Under the horror of a 2nd Hamas?

Who would control Gaza? An Israeli troop, even a temporary one, perhaps. And then? Who would rebuild the region, with what means and with what capacity to bring order to the territory?

The exodus to Egypt may reduce the size of the slaughter. Given the horror, perhaps that’s the best we can hope for, for now. Furthermore, it does not in any way reduce the risk of massacre of those who remain in Gaza and of the war expanding throughout the region. To make matters worse, it could result in another permanent expulsion of Palestinians and the perpetuation of the humanitarian and political disaster in the region. Just as Western and regional powers had no plan or interest in resolving the Palestinians’ misfortune before the new war, neither do they now.

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