Financial market predicts GDP growth of 2.24% and inflation at 4.95% in 2023

Financial market agents estimate that the Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) should end the year with an increase of 2.24%, according to the Focus Report released this Monday morning (17). The estimate is 0.05 percentage points above what was projected last week and 0.10 in a month (see in full).

The GDP growth forecast had been at a constant high for eight weeks until it stabilized last Monday (10) at 2.19%.

The inflation expectation for the year 2023 remained at 4.95%, the same index projected last week and interrupting a drop of eight consecutive weekly reports.

The estimates for the dollar exchange rate are also maintained, which should end the year at an average of R$ 5, and the basic interest rate, of 12%. The Selic is currently at 13.75% and should begin to be reduced as of the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), on August 1st and 2nd, with the two new directors appointed by the government already in place.

For the next three years, financial market agents forecast inflation at 3.92% in 2024, 3.55% in 2025 and 3.50% in 2026.