Federal collection breaks record in April and May, but numbers show a slowdown in the pace of growth

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Information was disclosed this Thursday by the Internal Revenue Service. In the first five months of this year, the real increase was 1.02% over the same period last year. The collection of taxes, contributions and other federal revenue broke a record in the months of April and May of this year, according to the Federal Revenue Secretariat released this Thursday (22). However, the numbers show a slowdown in the pace of growth in recent months. In April, collections totaled R$ 203.9 billion in current values. Adjusted for inflation, the value was R$ 204.4 billion – a new record for the period. The historical series of the Federal Revenue begins in 1995. In May, the collection totaled R$ 176.8 billion, also the highest value ever recorded for that month since 1995, according to data from the Federal Revenue. Despite the historical record recorded in these months, the official figures from the Tax Authorities show a slowdown, that is, a slower pace of growth than had been registered. The real increase, in April, against the same month of last year, was 0.31% and, in May, the growth was 2.89%. In part of the first five months of this year, the collection of federal taxes totaled R$ 962.5 billion. With values ​​corrected for inflation, it totaled R$ 972.9 billion, with real growth of 1.02%. This value is also a historic record, in the series that began in 1995. The numbers compare with the real growth of 8.18% in the collection recorded throughout 2022 – when R$ 2.21 trillion were collected. The numbers are released at a time when the National Congress is discussing the fiscal framework, the new rule for public accounts – which replaces the spending ceiling (current mechanism that limits most of the collection to the previous year’s inflation). The fiscal framework was approved by the Senate plenary this Wednesday (21), but as it was changed by the senators, a new analysis by the Chamber of Deputies will be necessary. The expectation is that the text will be voted on in early July. Due to the format of the fiscal framework, the rule depends on the growth of revenue. A survey carried out by economists at Warren Rena brokerage indicates the need for at least R$ 254 billion in revenue increase, by 2026, to reach the baseline of the primary result targets of the fiscal framework presented by the economic team.

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