Febraban improves forecast for loan portfolio in 2023 – 02/24/2023 – Market

The Febraban (Brazilian Federation of Banks) raised from 8.2% to 8.3% the projection for the growth of the credit portfolio of financial institutions operating in the country this year, according to a survey released this Friday (24).

The survey is carried out every 45 days after the release of the minutes of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting and, for the first time, collected projections for credit in 2024, with the average of expectations indicating an expansion of the total portfolio of 7.4% in the next year. This “points to the continuity of the movement of accommodation of credit growth”, stated Febraban in a press release.

For 2023, the survey captured an improvement in the estimate for the expansion of credit directed to both individuals and companies. The projection for the individual targeted credit portfolio rose from 8.6% to 9.2%, while for the corporate portfolio, the projection rose from 5.8% to 7.1%, said the entity.

“In the case of the targeted portfolio, a possible explanation is the possibility that public banks will have a greater role in the credit market in the new government,” said Rubens Sardenberg, director of economics, prudential regulation and risks at Febraban in the statement.

“Another possibility […] is that the increase in interest rates in the free market and a weaker performance of the capital market can increase the demand for resources in the targeted segment of legal entities”, he added.

In addition to the forecast on the portfolio’s growth, the survey captured an improvement in the expectation for the default of the Livre portfolio this year, whose projection went from 4.7% to 4.4%.

The survey was carried out with 19 banks between February 8 and 14, Febraban said.