Expectations for the economy this year improve, but for 2024 it declines for the 2nd time in a row – 05/15/2023 – Market

Analysts consulted by the Central Bank slightly improved the expectation for the economy this year but reduced the growth forecast in 2024 for the second week in a row, showed the Focus survey released by the BC this Monday (15).

The growth estimate for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in 2023 improved by 0.02 percentage point, to 1.02%. As for 2024, there was a decrease of 0.02 points, to 1.38%.

At the same time, the survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the expectation for the IPCA rise this year was adjusted upwards by 0.01 point, to 6.03%. For 2024 there was a decrease of the same magnitude, to 4.15%. For the following two years, the estimate for inflation remains at 4.0%.

The center of the official inflation target for 2023 is 3.25% and for 2024 and 2025 it is 3.00%, always with a tolerance margin of plus or minus 1.5 percentage points.

The weekly survey with a hundred economists also showed that the basic interest rate remains estimated at 12.50% at the end of this year and at 10.0% in 2024. Currently the Selic is at 13.75% and the expectation is that it be maintained at this level at the BC’s June meeting.