El Niño is coming, with risk of bad weather for the forest and food prices – 07/19/2023 – Vinicius Torres Freire

It is very likely that the planet will have to deal with relevant effects of an El Niño this year. As is known, this is an increase in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean around the Equator, which greatly contributes to altering winds, humidity, temperature and rainfall on the planet.

Typical effects in Brazil are drought in the North, particularly in the Amazon, rain showers in the South and more heat and humidity in the Center-South and Southeast. Typical: means that it is not certain, but frequent. The biggest impact usually occurs from October to January.

And? Any prudent administrator, be it government, forest, city, farm or investment, should pay attention to the possibility of a “strong” El Niño, like those that occurred in the 1997-98 season or 2015-16 (when there were terrible fires in the Amazon).

The chance that at peak El Niño will be moderate is about 80% this year; that it is strong, 50%; very strong, 20%, wrote University of Miami researcher Emily Parker on the US Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) blog, based on the most recent forecast from NOAA’s Center for Climate Prediction, dated July 13.

“Moderate” or “strong” are informal ratings, notes Parker. The greater the rise in Pacific temperature, the stronger the impact on the atmosphere in general and the more typical the effects on temperature and rainfall, but other factors may play a role.

An even more deforested and degraded Amazon is at increased risk of fire, as Brazilian biologist Erika Berenguer, a researcher at the universities of Oxford and Lancaster, has been warning for months. After the devastation of the forest and the dismantling of structures and environmental governance, the Ministry of the Environment is expanding inspection and firefighting teams, according to Raoni Rajão, from UFMG and director of the Ministry’s Department of Policies for Controlling Deforestation and Burning.

Studies by the economist Bráulio Borges indicate that the droughts from 2012 made their contribution to the great economic crisis of that lost decade, show estimates of a 2021 work. Borges is an economist at the consultancy LCA and a researcher at FGV IBRE.

This is not to say that we are doomed to a summer of ruin, but to take care of risks.

El Niño can gain or lose strength. Its effects, as mentioned above, are uncertain, even more so in the economy, in the forest or in cities.

Bradesco economists published a report on this Wednesday that illustrates the uncertainty. “The last strong El Niño, which occurred between 2015-16, was associated with the global crash of grains and sugar, raising the prices of agricultural commodities and putting pressure on food price indices.

El Niño should have important effects on the 2023-24 agricultural season. If weak or moderate, grain production should be good, in the US or Brazil, continues Trigo. If strong, things change shape. “In 1997-98, the global production of grains grew by 2.6%, and that of sugar by 0.9%. In Brazil, the production of grains retreated”, but without global impact, with which the food inflation in the world retreated by 8.7%.

In 2015-16, world grain production declined, with crop failures in Argentina and Brazil (corn, beans, rice; sugar also did poorly). Food inflation increased by 9.2%. The GDP of agriculture in Brazil then fell by 4.9% (this year it should grow by around 11%), with losses in all regions of the country. Food inflation was 9.4% in 2016, recalls Trigo. In case of a strong El Niño, it could happen again in 2023-24.

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