Economic Uncertainty Indicator drops 1.7 points in September

Index

Index is measured by FGV

The Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-Br) from the Brazilian Institute of Economics of Fundação Getulio Vargas (Ibre/FGV) fell 1.7 points in September, to 106.8 points. As a result, the indicator remained below 110 points for the fourth month in a row, something that had not occurred since February 2018.

According to Ibre/FGV economist Anna Carolina Gouveia, after interrupting, in August, the sequence of falls that began in April, economic uncertainty fell again in September, motivated by a discreet decline in the media component, and of greater magnitude in the of expectations.

“In general, the maintenance of the policy of monetary easing and inflation control has influenced the fall of the IIE-Br and may continue to contribute in the coming months. Despite this, the unsatisfactory dynamics of the international scenario and the fiscal uncertainties, recently raised, may cause some future volatility in the indicator, making it difficult for a further reduction in uncertainty in the coming months”, stated Anna Carolina in a note.

In September, the media component fell 0.8 points, to 107.7 points, contributing negatively with 0.7 points to the evolution of the aggregate index. The expectations component, which measures the dispersion in experts’ forecasts for macroeconomic variables, fell 4.5 points, to 100.7 points, the lowest level since January 2022 (99.6 pts.), contributing negatively with 1 point.

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