Dollar operates unstable and oil soars with war in the Middle East

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Last Friday, the North American currency fell to R$5.1615, while Ibovespa rose 0.78%, to 114,170 points. Dollar operates on the rise Karolina Grabowska The dollar operates with volatility this Monday (9), oscillating between highs and lows, on the first day of open markets after the start of the war between Israel and Hamas. The conflict has global repercussions on the markets, renewing the climate of risk aversion. The highlight is oil, which rose almost 4% in the morning. The barrel of Brent, a reference for Petrobras’ price formation, reached US$87. Furthermore, the short week due to the Our Lady of Aparecida holiday is also marked by important announcements, such as inflation in Brazil, the United States United States and China, in addition to the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve (Fed, the American central bank). See the day in the markets below. Dollar At 9:30 am, the US currency fell 0.15%, quoted at R$5.1539. See more quotes. Last Friday, the dollar closed down 0.14%, sold at R$5.1615, after operating higher for much of the session. At the day’s high, the currency reached R$5.2207. The dollar has not been above the level of R$5.20 since March of this year. As a result, the currency began to accumulate: increases of 2.68% in the week and month; drop of 2.21% in the year. Ibovespa Ibovespa only operates from 10am. Last Friday, the index closed up 0.78%, at 114,170 points. As a result, it began to accumulate: drops of 1.92% in the week and month; increase of 4.19% in the year. READ ALSO CASH OR CARD? What is the best way to take dollars when traveling? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? What’s moving the markets? The highlight of this session in Brazil and around the world is the war between Israel and Hamas, after the Islamic group began a series of attacks against Israeli territory in the early hours of last Saturday (7). Official information says that, on the third day of conflicts, more than 1,200 deaths have been recorded, including Jews and Palestinians, in addition to hundreds of missing and injured people. Among all the impacts of a war, from the markets’ point of view, the biggest financial concern is the price of oil. The region is an important logistical point for the passage of commodities and the conflict is likely to cause difficulties in transport. Furthermore, it is worth highlighting that Iran, one of the largest oil exporters in the world, is a supporter of Hamas. So, if the country decides to support the war, the impacts on the production and supply of the commodity could be even greater. In this context, the price of oil soars by almost 4% in the markets this morning. This increase raises concerns about inflation around the world, as oil is an essential raw material for several production chains – and, if its price rises, the tendency is to put pressure on inflation, which is already high in many countries. , mainly the United States. Caution about war can also cause the dollar to advance against other currencies, since this is considered the safest currency in the world and, in times of uncertainty, investors flock to it. On the market’s radar is also a series of important announcements that take over the economic agenda throughout the week. On Wednesday, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) releases the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which is the country’s official inflation for September. In the United States, the Fed releases minutes of its last meeting, which should bring new signals about the future of interest rates in the world’s largest economy. Still on Wednesday, the United States will have data on producer inflation in September, while on Thursday there will be consumer inflation, as in China. In the domestic scenario, the Central Bank of Brazil (BC) released another edition of the Focus Bulletin – a report that brings together the projections of financial market economists for economic indicators. This week, estimates for the exchange rate for the end of 2023 rose from R$4.95 to R$5. For the end of 2024, it remained stable at R$5.02. Expectations for inflation at the end of next year also rose, rising from 3.87% to 3.88%. For 2023, the inflation estimate remained stable at 4.86%, above the BC target of 3.25%, and could fluctuate between 1.75% and 4.75%.

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