Dollar opens slightly lower, on a day of reduced business and with expectations from the Copom

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Last Friday, the US currency rose 0.34%, sold at R$ 4.8186. Dollar banknotes Pixabay The dollar opened slightly higher on Monday (19), in a day of reduced business around the world due to the holiday of the Day of the End of Slavery in the United States. In the domestic market, investors echo the latest edition of Boletim Focus, the report by the Central Bank of Brazil (BC) that brings the median expectations of financial market economists for the country’s main economic indicators. This week, for the fifth consecutive time, estimates for inflation in 2023 fell, while those for GDP rose. The market is also awaiting the release of the result of the next meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), which takes place this Wednesday (21). At 9:03 am, the US currency rose 0.12%, sold at R$ 4.8244. See more quotes. Last Friday (16), the dollar closed at a high of 0.34% and closed at R$ 4.8186, interrupting a sequence of five declines, which took it to the lowest level in a year. As a result, the currency began to accumulate falls of: 1.18% in the week; 5.02% in the month; 8.70% in the year. UNDERSTAND: What makes the dollar rise or fall in relation to the real COMMERCIAL X TOURISM: what is the difference between the quotation of foreign currencies and why is tourism more expensive? MONEY OR CARD? What’s the best way to take dollars on trips? DOLLAR: When is the best time to buy the currency? What is messing with the markets? On a day with an empty schedule in the main stock market in the world, due to the holiday, the attention of local investors turned to the new projections for the Brazilian economy. According to Boletim Focus, the Extended Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which reflects the country’s official inflation, should close at 5.12% in 2023, which represents a strong reduction in relation to the last edition of the report, which pointed out for an increase of 5.42%. A month ago, projections were for an IPCA of 5.80% this year. Even with the drop, if the expectation materializes, inflation will close the year above the ceiling of the value established by the Central Bank. The target is 3.25%, ranging from 1.50% to 4.50%. However, the lower projections for the IPCA also contributed to a reduction in expectations for the Selic, basic interest rate. Now, the market expects the rate to end 2023 at 12.25% per year, from a forecast of 12.50% previously. Currently, interest rates are at 13.75% per annum and specialists believe that the Copom should start lowering the rate in August. For this Wednesday’s meeting, the Committee is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Focus also presented the sixth consecutive increase in the projections for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) this year, which rose from 1.84% to 2.14%. On the other hand, estimates for the exchange rate dropped to R$5.00 at the end of the year. Also on investors’ radar is the vote for the new fiscal framework in the Senate, which should take place this week.

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