Dollar closes below BRL 5.00 for the first time in the year
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The dollar amended the second trading session of firm decline in yesterday’s session and broke the barrier of R$ 5.00 at the close for the first time since early June 2022, on a day marked by losses of the American currency abroad. The real was the best performer among emerging currencies and those of commodity exporting countries, closely followed by the Colombian peso. Operators once again reported the flow of foreign resources to equities and local fixed income, in addition to the closing of exchange rates by exporters and the dismantling of defensive positions in the futures market.
Already favored by the rise in commodities in the face of positive signs from the Chinese economy, emerging currencies, in particular Latin American countries with high interest rates, gained extra momentum this Wednesday with the release of the lower-than-expected result of the consumer price index ( CPI) in the US in March. Although the disinflation process is still slow, the perception of an imminent end to the monetary tightening is growing, with a probable residual increase of 25 basis points in May.
Around here, the sharp deceleration of the IPCA in March and the possibility of including extra restrictions on the expansion of expenses in the proposed new fiscal framework still reverberate on the operating tables, amidst signs that President Lula would have arbitrated in favor of the team economy in the dispute with the political wing of the Planalto.
Apart from a very punctual and limited high in the first minutes of business, the dollar operated at a firm low throughout the day. With a low of R$ 4.9176 (-1.79%) at the end of the morning, the currency ended the session at a low of 1.31%, quoted at R$ 4.9417 – the lowest closing value since June 9, 2022 (BRL 4.9156). The currency already presents losses of 2.30% in the week and 2.50% in March, which takes the accumulated devaluation in the year to 6.41%.
The Ibovespa, in turn, looked as if it would regain the 107,000-point line this Wednesday, a level not seen at a close since February 23, and at the best moment, in the afternoon, it reached a maximum of 108,000, also the highest intraday level since 2/23. After a jump of more than 4% in the previous session, when it had registered the biggest daily gain since the beginning of October, the B3 reference rose 0.64% yesterday, to 106,889.71 points, between a minimum of 106,216.58 and a maximum of 108,277.02, leaving the opening at 106,217.90 points.
In the week, the index advances 6.02% and in the month, 4.91%, reducing the year’s loss to 2.59%. The turnover was R$ 59.8 billion in the session, reinforced by the expiration of options on the Ibovespa, in a recovery of volume that had been outlined the day before, when it returned to around R$ 30 billion.
From abroad, consumer inflation in the United States, lower than expected for March, supported the appetite for risky assets, sustaining a new day of price realignment at the B3, which on Tuesday had experienced the enthusiasm around the reading on the March IPCA, with the accumulated in 12 months below the target ceiling, something that had not been seen for a few years.
“The deceleration of consumer inflation in the United States, practically in line with expectations, from 6% per year in February to 5% per year in March, was very important for market movements in the morning, with Treasury interest rates of 10 years withdrawing premium”, says Camila Abdelmalack, chief economist at Veedha Investimentos, noting that consumer inflation in the US reached 9.1% a year last June.
In the afternoon, however, New York’s stock indices settled lower, at the lows of the day, after the Federal Reserve’s minutes referring to its most recent monetary policy meeting. The Fed projects that the United States will go through a “mild recession”, which should start at the end of this year, in response to the “economic effects of the recent developments in the banking sector”, followed by a recovery of activity in the following two years.
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