Dollar at R$5: is it worth buying now? – 02/03/2023 – Market

This week, the dollar was sold at R$5.04, its lowest level since August last year. The retreat of the American currency encouraged those who are scheduled to travel abroad, since the quotations of the tourism dollar follow the commercial dollar, even boosting the rise of airline shares on the Ibovespa.

The orientation for Brazilians with plans to use the dollar in the coming months continues to be to buy the currency little by little, especially if expenses in foreign currency are not immediate.

The appreciation of the dollar against the real, however, still suffers interference from political noise. While on Thursday (2) the coin reached a minimum value of R$4.94, on Friday (3) it exceeded R$5.13.

On Thursday, the market reacted positively to the harsh tone of the Central Bank, which made it clear that there would be a great cost to inflation in case of greater lack of control in the fiscal issue. The milder tone of the US central bank, with a less restrictive monetary policy, contributed to the downward movement of the dollar here.

“But it is worth noting that, from now on, it is not possible to know whether this movement is a trend or not, because we still have some uncertainties in the political scenario and in the fiscal scenario”, says Cristiane Quartaroli, economist at Banco Ourinvest.

Shortly before the end of Thursday’s negotiations, a speech by President Luís Inácio Lula da Silva, with criticism of the Central Bank’s autonomy and the spending ceiling, made the dollar gain strength and end the week on a high.

Economists claim that the dollar should be even lower, because of the emerging currencies, the real was the one that moved the least, due to the entire internal political scenario. With a favorable wind, the perspective of analysts is that the currency stays between R$ 4.80 and R$ 4.90 this year.

“Abroad, inflation makes the task of central banks increasingly difficult, and markets are increasingly pricing in the possibility of a recession as a result of high interest rates in large economies. This points to a higher dollar in the coming months. , but there are signs in the opposite direction as well”, says Luiz Felipe Bazzo, CEO of Transferbank.

“Brazil, for not being involved in these geopolitical conflicts, authoritarian regimes or restrictions on circulation, like Russia, Turkey and China, can stand out if this scenario comes to fruition, even more so if we take into account that the country has the highest interest rate real world”, says Bazzo.

When is it better to buy the currency for investments and travel?

Before making quotations at exchange offices, it is necessary to understand what the purpose of the purchase is. “If it’s very short-term speculation, forget it. With the current interest rate and the chances of the Central Bank raising it even more, in the medium term, the dollar suffers. I would wait to buy a little further on”, says Rafael Marques , CEO of Philos Invest.

If the reason for buying dollars is for investment, the tip is not to buy at once. Marques says that investors must set a goal and define the amount they will accept to pay for the currency. In this way, he has the so-called “average price”.

“Buying to put in the investment portfolio as a diversification strategy is totally valid. Then put it in an investment fund pegged to the dollar, with a small percentage, given its volatility and risk”, says Marques.

For those traveling in the next six months, the ideal is to buy the currency in advance, monthly, to protect yourself from sudden changes. It pays to close the exchange the day after a low.

If you’re returning from an international trip, it might be worth buying the currency at a low rate to pay your credit card bill in advance with expenses in dollars.

“It’s a good time for anyone who wants to do foreign exchange, for anyone who has a trip scheduled or is doing an international lease”, says Piter Carvalho, chief economist at Valor Investimentos.

The tourist dollar follows the commercial rate, but is generally more expensive, as the volume negotiated in each transaction is usually smaller, as it is for individuals. In tourism, the cost of operations and the IOF (Tax on Financial Operations) of 1.10% are added. On purchases made with a prepaid card or credit card, the tax is higher, at 5.38%.

New limit for traveling with currency in cash without having to declare

Since December 30 of last year, Brazilians can enter or leave Brazil with up to US$ 10,000 in cash, without the need for a declaration.

Previously, the limit was set at R$ 10,000. Those wishing to travel with a higher amount needed to fill out a document called e-DBV (Electronic Declaration of Travellers’ Goods (e-DVB), informing the Federal Revenue. Without the declaration, entry into Brazil with amounts above the ceiling was subject to taxation.

The new limit is stipulated in dollars, but applies to any foreign currency, in addition to the real.