Climate change could lead to the loss of 90% of the fauna and flora of the Caatinga – 10/17/2023 – Fundamental Science

The Caatinga, a 100% Brazilian biome, is home to almost 30 million people who live in a rich but neglected biodiversity. Recent research – one of which was published this Tuesday, 17th – indicates that climate change could result in the loss of fauna and flora species in 90% of this biome by 2060. In other words, the territory could be left with “the earth burning, which Bonfire of São João”, as immortalized by Luiz Gonzaga in “Asa Branca”.

At the current rate, in the future this area will be increasingly arid and will experience increasingly hotter temperatures. Such climate changes could compromise the interactions of species — with each other and with the environment. Fortunately, the fight against the climate crisis finds a strong ally in environmental modeling.

Integrating climate and biodiversity information with data science methods makes it possible to simulate species’ responses to environmental variations. Once the models are built, it is possible to feed them with projections of the future climate and map the expected geographic distribution of different species. By comparing the results obtained between the present and future, we can anticipate the expected changes for each species.

To uncover the impacts of climate change on the fauna and flora of the Caatinga, a group of scientists, of which I am part, gathered more than 438 thousand records of occurrences for around 3 thousand species of plants and 93 species of mammals. This data served as the basis for two recently published studies with environmental modeling – one on plants in the Journal of Ecology, in June, and the other on mammals, published this Tuesday, 17th, in the journal Global Change Biology.

When we cross extensive landscapes, it is natural that, from one place to another, the composition of species varies. Well: this variation will also be affected by climate change, resulting in a process of simplification (homogenization) of biological communities. For the Caatinga flora, the prognosis is that the reduction in species variability will reach 40% of the territory. For mammals, this value is more dramatic, damaging 70% of the biome’s area.

In addition to the exacerbated loss of species and homogenization of communities, our findings highlight that the impact of climate change varies with the body size of animals. In 87% of mammal communities, species loss will be more significant among small mammals, such as cuícas and arboreal rodents, than among heavier animals, such as armadillos and capybaras. If that wasn’t enough, we project that 93% of the biome will experience the replacement of tree plants by grass, herbaceous and succulent species.

The implications of this collapse of biodiversity include the reduction of ecosystem services – the benefits generated by nature – and the interruption of interactions between species. For example, plant biomass production and carbon storage is greater in tree plants, which typically depend on mammals (among other animals) for pollination and seed dispersal.

Most likely, not only “the white wing will flap its wings from the backlands”. The extinction of animal species projected for the Caatinga could accelerate changes in vegetation and make it difficult to implement mitigation strategies.

Nearly half of the global human population lives in arid or semi-arid regions. It is crucial, therefore, to understand the impact of climate change on its flora and fauna to implement environmental policies that guarantee the sustainability of ecosystems and natural resources for future generations.

In the Caatinga, these challenges are increased by chronic disturbances and severe habitat loss. With a highly fragmented vegetation cover — with around 50% of the original vegetation still present — the success of conservation initiatives will depend on the active involvement of stakeholders, including government, NGOs and local communities.

Environmental modeling not only facilitates the investigation of multiple future scenarios, it also enables the identification of converging trends that can convey a unified message. These “smart solutions” to anticipate the future of the Caatinga represent a unique opportunity to reverse decades of environmental degradation and promote the resilience of the sertão.

Mitigating the impacts of climate change – from extreme heatwaves to floods and floods – requires a reassessment of our relationships with the environment. The United Nations has designated the period 2021-2030 as the Decade of Ecosystem Restoration. Governments, civil society, private sector companies and multilateral organizations need to prioritize environmental restoration initiatives before it is too late.

The advantages of climate regulation extend far beyond the simple health of ecosystems, also encompassing the creation of jobs, improvements in food security and the social well-being of human populations.

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Mario Moura is a biologist, visiting professor at the State University of Campinas, and works with biodiversity, ecology and conservation.

The Fundamental Science blog is edited by Serrapilheira, a private, non-profit institute that promotes science in Brazil. Sign up for the Serrapilheira newsletter to keep up to date with news from the institute and the blog.

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