China stimulates the rise of the Ibovespa, which defends 110 thousand points

Higher-than-expected activity data from China at the end of 2022 stimulate the rise of the Ibovespa, which comes from a series of three trading sessions followed by devaluation. On Monday, it closed down 1.54%, at 109,212.66 points. At the same time, the expectation of advancing the tax reform is on the radar, as is the gap in Americanas. Not even the unstable opening of New York, which returns from the holidays, prevents appreciation here. However, the “American case” and local tax doubts are on the radar.

Despite the weakness of Chinese GDP last year, the economy grew more than forecast by experts in the last quarter of 2022, with expansion also in retail and industrial production exceeding expectations in December. The numbers suggest positive prospects for the Asian giant. Oil rises more than 1, which is reflected in the sector’s shares on the B3.

“The last 45 days of last year are noteworthy, when we began to see data from services, industrial production and others, indicating an improvement in demand, and this provides guidance that indicates attractive positive projections for 2023”, evaluates Bernard Faust, equity operator at One Investimentos.

Bradesco, for example, estimates a 5.0% expansion of Chinese GDP in 2023, given that it expects the end of restrictions on the circulation of covid-19 in China to add a positive bias to growth in the first quarter. However, he admits that the scenario remains challenging.

For Faust, from One, China’s weak GDP closed in 2022, up 3% (compared to 8.1% in 2021) is in the past. In the fourth quarter, the country grew 2.9% compared to the same period in 2021, compared to a forecast of 1.7%. In addition, the operator of One assesses that a US slowdown, with signs of recession, is bad for the economy, but “good” for the market, given that the Fed may adopt a countercyclical policy.

The 1.30% drop in iron ore in Dalian does not even prevent the Bovespa index and metallic stocks from rising.

“China is an important player, especially for Brazil. If the country has a better environment, other economies also benefit”, assesses Ariane Benedito, an economist specializing in capital markets. According to her, even if there is a new increase in cases of covid-19 there, China has other combat mechanisms. “What hinders are the sanctions imposed by other economies. Apart from that, the country is doing well in world trade”, evaluates Ariane.

About Americanas, the shares rise today (almost 12%), as well as those of banks, which fell yesterday. One of the retailer’s biggest creditors, BTG Pactual, filed a new petition to suspend the blocking of debt payments granted to the retailer, in order to recover R$ 1.2 billion.

“The spotlight should continue to shed light on the retailer’s case”, cites a report by Rico Investimentos. Americanas has already lost more than 84% of its market value since the accounting inconsistencies became public. Yesterday, the shares closed the trading session with a 38.41% retreat.

At 11:29 am, the Ibovespa rose 1.16%, to 110,475.83 points, compared to the high of 110,674.11 points (up 1.34%).