Brazil returns to lead world corn exports – 09/03/2023 – Vaivém

Ten years later, Brazil once again leads the world in corn exports. In calculations by the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), Brazilians will place 52 million tons of cereal on the foreign market in this 2022/23 harvest.

If confirmed, the volume will exceed by 60% that of the previous crop, which was 32.4 million. To make the world ranking of exports, the USDA considers data from October of one year to September of the other for each country.

The North Americans should trade only 49 million tons of cereal on the foreign market, a volume 22% lower than the 2021/22 crop, according to data released by the USDA this Wednesday (8).

The first time that Brazil led world corn exports had been in the 2012/13 harvest, a period in which the United States had a strong retraction in production, due to climate effects.

In that period, production in the United States dropped to 273 million tons, well below the level of 333 million that had reached three harvests before.

In 2012/13, Brazil still produced 81 million tons, but exported 26 million, above the 18.3 million sold by the USA.

The big corn importers will keep an eye on Brazil this year. The main world producers will have a crop failure, reducing exports.

Argentina, which sold 39 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest, will place only 29 million on the foreign market in this harvest, considering the period from October to September.

Ukraine, also important for the world cereal market, should export 23.5 million tons, a volume well below the 30 million it reached before the Russian invasion.

The main world importers will be the European Union, China, Japan and South Korea. Everyone has already accelerated purchases in Brazil in this first two months. Japan and China alone have already taken 2.6 million tons of the Brazilian product in January and February.

The export agreement between Ukraine and Russia is expected to be renewed by March 18. If the renewal does not occur, the market will become nervous again, with price increases.

Part of corn consumption, due to supply and price difficulties, may be replaced by wheat this year.

World corn production retreats to 1.15 billion tons, 110 million below consumption. The Brazilian goes up and should reach 125 million tons.

The planting of the safrinha, already carried out in 70% of the area destined to the cereal, continues behind in relation to the 80% of last year, according to AgRural.

In the São Paulo market, the price of a bag of corn remains at R$ 86, without major changes since April last year, according to daily monitoring by Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

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