Brazil consumes less corn than expected – 02/08/2023 – Vaivém

Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento) readjusted the corn data for the last harvests. According to the government agency, the country consumed 6.1 million tons of cereal less than previously estimated in the accumulated of the last six harvests.

The biggest change took place in the 2018/19 harvest, when, according to new calculations, the country consumed 61.9 million tons of cereal in the domestic market, 3 million less than the entity estimated before.

The lower consumption in recent harvests and the maintenance of supply numbers caused an upward readjustment in the volumes of stocks from one harvest to another.

The result is that the final stocks of the 2021/22 harvest, which, according to January data from the entity, would be at just 1.8 million tons, rose to 7.9 million. This readjustment is due to new consumption figures, which were 6.1 million tons lower than estimated in the last harvests.

With this, Conab signals that the volume of corn on the market for the passage of this off-season is greater. The corn harvest is considered from February of one year to January of the other, and the beginning of the year, in general, has a smaller supply of the product.

Even with the readjustment of the numbers, the carry-over stocks of the harvest that ends are still considered low, due to accelerated exports. In January alone, 6.2 million tons of corn left the country.

Difficulties in Argentina and Ukraine in supplying the cereal to the international market and the resistance of North American producers to commercialize their product turned the eyes of the world to Brazil.

The source, however, is drying up and, with little product supply from February to April, corn prices should remain heated in the domestic market. The harvest of the second crop, the main one in the country, will only start in May in some regions.

The drop in domestic consumption in recent harvests is due to Conab readjusting the use of the cereal in poultry and pork production in the period, according to protein production data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

According to the government entity, human consumption is also lower than previously predicted.

This Wednesday (8) the Secex (Secretary of Foreign Trade) released corn export data for January. Total sales in the country amounted to 6.2 million tons.

At the top of the list of importers last month are four Asian countries. Japan and China imported close to 275 thousand tons each; Vietnam and South Korea, 180,000 each.

In 2022, Brazilian exports reached a record 47 million tons, with Iran being the main importer, buying 6.6 million tons. Japan and Spain, with 4.9 million, followed.

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harvest total Brazilian grain production, depending on the weather, could reach 310.6 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest, up 14% compared to last year, according to estimates by Conab (Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento).

total harvest 2 Soy and corn lead. Oilseed production, despite the drought problems in Rio Grande do Sul, should reach 152.8 million tons, 22% more than in 2022. 4%.

Rice The cereal once again has retreat in production. There will be 10.2 million tons this year, 6% less than in 2022. The 2022 wheat harvest, due to the favorable climate in Rio Grande do Sul, was 10.6 million tons.

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