Banks predict an increase of 8.3% in the demand for credit in 2023

Brazilian banks predict that the demand for credit should grow 8.3% this year according to the Febraban Survey of Banking Economics and Expectations, released this Friday morning (24) by the National Federation of Banks (Febraban). The projection is more optimistic than that made in December 2022, when the entity predicted an expansion of 7.7%. (see in full)

The survey, carried out shortly after the release of the minutes of the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank, captured an improvement in the estimate of expansion of credit targeted both to individuals (9.2%) and to companies (7 ,1%). One of the reasons given by the banks is the possibility of greater action by public banks.

“Another possibility, which is not contradictory to the previous explanation, is that the increase in interest rates in the free market and a weaker performance of the capital market may increase the demand for funds in the corporate segment”, says Rubens Sardenberg, director of Economics, Prudential Regulation and Risks at Febraban.

On the other hand, there was a reduction in the projection for free credit, from 8.6% to 8.2% in 2023. The revision was more relevant in the individual portfolio, with a reduction in the increase from 10.1% to 8. 7%. “There is an expectation of economic slowdown due to high inflation, high interest rates and a more unfavorable external scenario, still with many uncertainties”, adds Sardenberg.

For the first time, the survey also collected credit projections for the following year. The average of the projections for the expansion of the total portfolio in 2024 was 7.4%, which points to the continuity of the movement of accommodation of credit growth.

Selic and exchange rate should not undergo many changes

The survey released by Febraban also assessed the expectations of banks on interest rates, foreign currency, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, among other data. See below what they predict for this year:

• Selic: the basic interest rate should remain at 13.75% per annum at least until September. In the previous projection, the fall should occur as of June.
• Exchange: the expectation is that the dollar will remain quoted close to R$ 5.30 until the end of the third quarter.
• GDP: The forecast is that economic activity will grow between 0.5% and 1.0% in 2023.
• Default: Banks improved their expectations, with a forecast of 4.4%, compared to 4.7% in the previous survey.
• American market: analysts expect the Fed (central bank of the United States) to raise interest rates twice more (+0.25 percentage points in each session), to a range between 5% and 5.25% per year, and then maintain the rate until the end of the year.