Artificial intelligence problem will be economic, not ethical – 02/04/2023 – Ronaldo Lemos

The last few days have been intense with regard to the debate over new AI (artificial intelligence) tools. Letter signed by Elon Musk and Yuval Harari asked for a six-month “pause” in the development of artificial intelligence tools more powerful than GPT-4. Furthermore, Italy has banned the use of ChatGPT based on alleged violations of its personal data protection law.

Cards like this, however, will not be able to stop the AI. The recent history of technology is to make functionality “normal” that was initially considered unacceptable. At the beginning of the popularization of the internet, posting a picture of yourself was considered strange and dangerous. The practice was not only normalized but is now almost mandatory in several services.

Sharing one’s location was once seen as crazy. Who would announce to the world your physical location? Today, not only do we mark where we are, but our cell phone monitors our location all the time and shares this information in real time many times with 50 to 100 different companies. There’s no one in sight signing letters asking for a “pause” on this type of technology.

The fact is that the list of technologies that suffered real restrictions regarding their use can be counted on the fingers of one hand. These include the cloning of human beings, genetic modifications in humans that can become heritable, and research related to gains in function in viruses and bacteria, increasing their infectious capacity.

But even these technologies were not banned. Cloning is at full steam in animals, including pets. Hereditary genetic modifications are also common in plants and animals. Even with regard to the feared gain of function, there is evidence from several countries conducting research of this type. That is, ethical restrictions had no effect. Everything continues between us.

With regard to AI, history must repeat itself. No current ethical debate seems to have the capacity to stop the advance of this technology. Even the letter signed by Harari and Musk looks much more like a piece of propaganda for the power of these technologies than a real request for restriction. After all, what is six months? And would the restriction be only with respect to more advanced technologies than GPT-4? The letter celebrates the supposed power of technology more than it calls for its strict restraint.

The focus on the ethical debate ends up overshadowing the real problem of AI, which is actually economic. This problem is well described by Professor Richard Freeman in his three laws of robot economics.

• Law #1: Artificial intelligence creates robotic substitutes for human labor (greater elasticity of substitution)
• Law #2: The cost of these technologies is decreasing (as ChatGPT shows) and tends to become less than the cost of human labor
• Law #3: The question becomes who will own the robots that will replace us. If you own the robots, it will improve your income and your life. But if you don’t own it, prepare for the worst.

In the face of simple economic laws like this, there is very little ethical debate can do.

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