Accumulated inflation in 12 months should increase in the second half

Accumulated inflation in 12 months, which reached 3.16% in June, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE(), should increase in the second half.

“The 12-month reading will start to rise from July, as deflation in the third quarter of 2022, due to tax cuts on fuels, energy and telecommunications, will be removed from the calculation”, explain the economists at the MUFG Brasil bank. . According to the bulletin Focus, from the Central Bank, the expectation of the financial market is that it reaches 4.95% in December.

The scenario does not worry economists and should not affect the beginning of the Selic rate cut, projected by the market for the beginning of August. Banks admit the possibility of revising downwards their inflation projections for this year. Behind this would be the possibility of further cuts in fuel prices and the exchange rate reaching even more valued levels.