2023: a preview of the future? – 05/11/2023 – Marcia Castro

With less than two months left before the end of the year, 2023 is already leaving a trail of destruction due to extreme weather events. Temperature records, drought, fires, floods. Entire cities practically destroyed in the northern and southern hemispheres. Although El Niño contributes to these events, it is not the only cause.

A study shows that 20 of the 35 planetary vital signs used to monitor the climate crisis have reached record values, creating a scenario never seen in human history. In September, another study had already shown that two-thirds of the conditions favorable to human life on Earth had already been compromised.

Although the vast majority of countries signed the Paris Agreement in 2015, committing to reduce emissions to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5°C (in relation to pre-industrial levels), progress in reducing emissions have been slow.

At the beginning of this year, the estimate that the 1.5°C limit would be reached in 2023 was less than 1%. However, the latest estimate (from September) is that there is a 90% chance that 2023 will exceed this limit. The consequences are devastating. A study estimated that between 2000 and 2019, around 1.2 billion people worldwide were affected by extreme weather events, generating a cost of US$143 billion per year, 63% due to the loss of human life.

Despite these consequences, progress in adopting climate adaptation measures is slowing. A report from the United Nations Environment Programme, published this month, shows that funding for mitigation and adaptation actions is just 5% to 10% of what is needed. The report suggests ways to increase domestic spending and international and private sector financing. However, political commitment is required.

In addition to the reduction in investment in adaptation measures, the latest report from the World Meteorological Organization, published last week, shows that the use of meteorological warnings by Ministries of Health to guide mitigation actions is still very limited.

Furthermore, the recent passage of Hurricane Otis showed that no model was able to predict its intensity. Atypically, Otis went from a tropical storm to a maximum category hurricane in about 12 hours. As a result, more than a million people in Mexico had little time to prepare for the storm.

The urgency of the climate crisis is a reality. And although the speed of change is surprising, the changes themselves have been discussed for decades. However, the responses do not keep up with the speed of the urgency.

In Brazil, the catastrophes in 2023 are incalculable. While the South region has been facing floods for months, parts of the Northeast have been living with desertification. In the Amazon, rivers have water levels well below normal, leaving communities completely isolated. And the smoke from the fires that covers cities in the Amazon exposes the population to serious health complications.

2023 with 1.5°C above average shows the world a preview of a warming planet. A planet where the seasons lose meaning, where catastrophes risk being normalized, and where those who contributed least to emissions suffer most from the effects of the climate crisis.

The next Climate Conference (COP28) will begin on the 30th of this month. It will present the first global assessment of the goals of the Paris Agreement so that countries can assess where they are progressing towards meeting the goals, where they are not, and what they should do.

May the urgency of the moment and the global balance drive action!

LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscribers can access five free accesses from any link per day. Just click the blue F below.