20 years after Alcântara, the country remains far from having a launcher – 11/11/2023 – Science

20 years ago, Brazil’s dream of becoming capable of launching satellites into Earth orbit ended in tragedy, with the accident of the third prototype of the VLS-1 (Satellite Launch Vehicle), at the Alcântara Launch Center, in Maranhão. The fire killed 21 technicians and engineers on August 22, 2003, three days before the flight was scheduled to take place, and to this day the Brazilian space program is struggling without recovering from the disaster.

At the current moment, the expectation is that a new national launcher, the VLM-1 (Microsatellite Launch Vehicle), can carry out its first mission in March 2027, according to the Brazilian Space Agency (AEB). It is basically a simplified — and less powerful — version of the old Brazilian project, capable of carrying satellites weighing 10 to 100 kilograms into a low Earth orbit (the VLS-1 could carry up to 380 kg).

It is necessary to be optimistic, however, to believe that the schedule will be fulfilled as projected by the project managers. A consultation of the latest version of the PNAE, the National Space Activities Program, an official document that lists Brazilian ambitions in the area, published in 2021, indicates that the VLM-1 should have its first flight in 2025. Summary: two years have passed , and he was two years late.

It wouldn’t be a big deal, if it weren’t for the development of national launchers for decades. Soon after the commotion over the accident with the VLS-1, in 2003, then (and now again) president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) promised that the rocket’s next flight would take place before the end of his term, in 2006. Then it was for 2007. Then for 2010. Then for 2013. And in 2016 the program was canceled, so that priority could be given to the nascent VLM-1, which had a flight scheduled for 2019.

Part of the most recent difficulties has to do with the company Avibras, from São José dos Campos (SP), contracted to produce the new engine for the first two stages of the rocket. Heavily in debt, the company filed for judicial recovery in 2022, and the plan to recover it was approved by creditors in July this year.

A copy of the new engine – the S50, the largest ever made in Brazil, with 12 tons of propellant and carbon fiber as raw material for its structure – was successfully tested on the ground in October 2021. But there wasn’t much to celebrate. A second test of this type, in which the engine is fixed to the ground and burns, would take place in mid-2022, but Avibras was unable to deliver it in time. The expectation is that the test will only take place in June 2024.

LEGACY OF THE TRAGEDY

Despite the difficulties, AEB highlights the advances made since the tragic accident in 2003. “An extensive investigation resulted in a deeper understanding of the factors that contributed to the accident and one of the main advances was the improvement of manufacturing and testing processes” , says the agency. “In addition, measures such as scope reduction, which avoids abrupt technological leaps, the introduction of intermediate risk-mitigating steps, and the review of security policies and procedures are examples of lessons learned and incorporated into subsequent projects.”

Heir to this legacy, the VLM-1 was designed by the IAE (Institute of Aeronautics and Space), a body of the Brazilian Air Force, with funding from AEB. Between its official start in 2014 and today, the project consumed R$144.9 million. It is developed in partnership with DLR, the German space agency, which is responsible for several components, including the control and navigation systems, the interstage adapters, the hood (inside which the payload is transported) and the system which controls the direction of the engine nozzles. Most of them have already been produced. It is the Brazilian side that delays the project – which makes its inclusion in the commercial launch market increasingly less likely.

LITTLE MARKET

“The VLM began to be thought of in 2008, a time when SpaceX itself had not reached space and there were doubts about its continuity”, explains Lucas Fonseca, space engineer and CEO of the company Airvantis, not involved with the initiative. “There was a tendency that some of the satellites in the 2010s would be reduced in size, and the VLM would be the first vehicle in the world destined for this new market, guaranteeing autonomy for smaller launches.”

In fact, although the VLM has not yet come out, several space startups have emerged with small vehicles, of which the one that stands out most today is Rocket Lab, with its Electron rocket (which carried out its first successful flight in 2018, making New Zealand the 16th country to perform an orbital launch). But all of them are now suffocated by the success of Elon Musk’s SpaceX.

“The price of launches fell significantly, and the market ended up moving towards solutions in which multiples are launched together in a large vehicle, as SpaceX does”, says Fonseca. “I would say that the VLM is stuck in time, and will have little impact on the space market if it flies one day.”

When consulted in this regard, AEB highlights that the main objective of the launcher is to enable Brazilian access to Earth’s orbit, “to ensure its independence in space”. It’s essentially the same motivation that led to the creation of the VLS-1 in 1980. And it’s not wrong. But it needs to become reality. The truth is that, in the last two decades, Brazil has never been as close to launching a satellite with a national rocket as in the days before the terrible Alcântara accident in 2003.