See stock exchange and dollar quotes this Tuesday – 03/14/2023 – Market

The dollar opened in decline this Tuesday (14), with investors still attentive to the unfolding of the breakdown of the SVB (Silicon Valley Bank). The exchange rate can react mainly to any signal about a possible interruption in the cycle of high interest rates in the United States.

Two events this Tuesday may influence market decisions, in addition to news about banks. The US consumer price index (CPI) for February will be released, and Michelle Bowman of the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) will deliver a speech in the late afternoon.

At 9:04 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar retreated 0.69%, to R$ 5.2320 on sale.

On B3, at 9:04 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.30%, to R$ 5.2515.

The Ibovespa fluctuates close to stability, while indices in New York rise this Monday afternoon (13). The dollar also appreciates against the real.

Investors still have many doubts about the consequences of the collapse of SVB (Silicon Valley Bank). At the same time, there is the prospect that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the US central bank) will interrupt the cycle of high interest rates due to the financial crisis.

In the resumption of trading hours between 10:00 am and 5:00 pm, the Ibovespa closed down by 0.48%, at 103,121 points. The spot commercial dollar ended the day up 1.17%, at R$5.267. This is the biggest close for the FX since February 9th.

In the interest market, rates have fallen, also following the trend in the United States, with the perception that the crisis may interrupt the cycle of interest rate hikes by the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank).

Contracts maturing in January 2024 dropped from 13.15% last Friday (10) to 12.99% per annum. For January 2025, the rate dropped from 12.37% to 12.14%. On January 2027, rates dropped from 12.64% to 12.46%.

Last Friday (10), the regulators took over the command of the SVB, after a movement of withdrawals by customers that totaled around US$ 2 billion.

The British branch of SVB was sold to HSBC, in a sale facilitated by the British government and the Bank of England, announced the British Treasury this Monday (13).

According to the statement, SVB UK customers will be able to access their deposits and banking services normally from this Monday.

Even with the guarantee given by the regulators that customers would have full access to their funds deposited in the bank, the feeling in the market is that there are still many more doubts than certainties.

US President Joe Biden assured Americans this Monday that their banking system “is safe” and that their deposits will be available “when they need it”, after the bankruptcy of SVB (Silicon Valley Bank), specializing in the technology sector. .

With so many doubts, stock indices in New York fluctuated a lot during the day, and closed without a single direction. The Dow Jones ended down 0.28%. The S&P 500 fell 0.15%. The Nasdaq index closed up 0.45%.

According to Reuters data, traders see a 15% probability that the US central bank will leave rates unchanged later this month.

Goldman Sachs said on Monday it does not expect any further hikes at the Fed meeting ending March 22, “in light of the recent stress on the banking system”.

The crisis triggered by the SVB also has an impact on oil prices. The barrel of the Brent type reached below US$ 80 this morning. At 5:20 pm (Brasília time), the barrel had fallen by 2.85%, at US$ 80.42. Petrobras shares closely followed the price of the product, falling more than 3%. PRIO common shares fell more than 4% and 3R Petroleum more than 5%.

With Reuters