Right wing abandons anti-system speech for municipal election

Having been defeated in the 2020 municipal elections, the Brazilian right reaches 2024 with competitive candidates in important capitals of the country. The structure around a party, the PL, and the almost billion-dollar party fund are seen by analysts as key factors for electoral performance. However, the assessment is that the Brazilian right needed to abandon the anti-system discourse, adopted by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in 2018, to leverage a political project.

In the 2020 municipal elections, Bolsonaro, then without a party, declared support for 63 candidates across the country, including 18 mayors, 44 councilors and a candidate for senator in the supplementary election in Mato Grosso. Only 11 candidates for councilor and five for mayor were elected — of these, only one in the capital, Tião Bocalom (PP), in Rio Branco.

At the time, the performance was seen as the result of the lack of a robust party that could centralize candidacies and guarantee resources. The then president left the PSL in 2019, after friction with the party’s president, deputy Luciano Bivar. Bolsonaro’s low insertion in municipal politics and the then-president’s troubled relationship with the main acronyms of the center in the first two years of government were also seen as elements that hindered electoral growth in the municipalities.

The need for articulation forced the right to get closer to the center and soften the speech

But when did part of the right join the center? The answer is not precise, but occupants of the Chamber of Deputies assess that the government’s support for the first election of Arthur Lira (PP-AL) to the presidency of the House was an important gesture from the right to the center parties. In the dispute, Lira faced Baleia Rossi (MDB) with majority support from the Bolsonarist wing.

Another important event was the appointment of senator Ciro Nogueira (PP) as chief minister of the Civil House, which took place in July 2021. Being a skilled articulator within the National Congress, the senator worked as a bridge between the Bolsonaro government and the bloc of lower clergy.

Bolsonaro’s affiliation with the Liberal Party, led by Valdemar Costa Neto, in 2021, was also analyzed as an important movement by Bolsonaro in adapting to the traditional political system. Previously a centrão party, the PL became an alternative for the main right-wing leaders, amid obstacles in the creation of the National Alliance. Furthermore, Costa Neto’s capacity for political articulation was seen as an important asset for dialogue with other parties that became part of the government. The result of this conjuncture of movements led to in 2022, when the PL elected 99 federal deputies: the largest bench in the Chamber.

Previously a centrão party, the PL became an alternative for the main right-wing leaders.

Political scientist Elton Gomes, professor at the Federal University of Piauí (UFPI), states that the Brazilian right has undergone a reconfiguration in recent decades, marked by the rise of new political groups and leaders. These movements were driven by opposition to corruption and impeachment of former president Dilma Rousseff, who served as a milestone for this change.

“There was a normalization of the political right in Brazil, with the reproduction of political messianism and charismatic leaders, something unprecedented in the ideological spectrum of the right until then. The emergence of Bolsonarism was a clear example of this phenomenon”, he assesses.

Gomes also highlights the growing institutionalization of this field, especially in the Liberal Party, which has gained political strength and access to resources. “The PL, Bolsonaro’s party, began to control important commissions and compete competitively for city halls, in part due to access to the party fund and the fundão, which increased competitiveness in the elections, even if its members criticize public campaign financing.”

PL needed to adopt pragmatism to advance in the electoral field

Political scientist Priscila Lapa highlights the programmatic fragility of parties in Brazil and the predominance of political pragmatism. She highlights how subtitles, including the PL, are often shaped more by convenience than by a structured ideological vision. “Parties in Brazil function much more as electoral instruments than as organizers of a world vision or a country project. The personalization of politics, partly driven by social media, has caused parties to lose their role in orchestrating society’s demands.”

Furthermore, Priscila observes that the growth of parties like the PL occurred in a pragmatic and electorally convenient way, but this expansion has limits. “The PL became attractive due to its ability to access resources, such as the electoral fund and TV time, which made it competitive. However, this swelling could generate internal conflicts in the future, with disputes for spaces of power between leaders who want to control the party. No Brazilian party escapes this phenomenon of caciquism.”

Priscila’s assessment can already be observed in the current conflict between members of the PL and the PSD, Gilberto Kassab’s party. The acronym, which currently commands the Federal Senate, is seen as the main obstacle to the impeachment by Minister Alexandre de Moraes, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Deputies Nikolas Ferreira (PL-MG) and Gustavo Gayer (PL-GO) even called for a boycott of PSD candidates in the municipal elections. However, the PL itself has more than 800 coalitions with Kassab’s party in the municipal election.

To gain space, the right sought to moderate the discourse

Political scientist Adriano Cerqueira, professor at Ibmec in Belo Horizonte, assesses that the Brazilian right has become more institutionalized, occupying political spaces and retreating from the anti-system discourse that marked the height of its rise. “After the PT era and the indignation generated by Lava Jato, Bolsonaro capitalized on this popular dissatisfaction, but the scenario is now different. The right, which previously had a more radical stance, is now concerned with securing the spaces conquered and expanding in a safer way.”

Cerqueira also comments on how Bolsonaro’s support has become important for center-right parties in the 2024 municipal elections, highlighting the strategic use of party resources. “The right is more integrated into the system, and the use of party funds by parties like the PL, something that previously generated criticism, is now a common practice. They are less anti-system because they are already part of the system and seek to consolidate themselves within it.”